Poll: Dow bottom

Informal fun (?) poll: In this current negative run, let's say before the next time the Dow sees 9000, how low does it go?


And when does it hit the low?


And when does it hit 9000?


Mark

Hits 7350 around August 25.


Hits 9000 in Feb 2003.

The day after Bush resigns.

I consider the DOW to be overvalued if you consider growth potential over the next three years and the high P/Es. The current prices of the stocks do not justify the high P/Es, therefore, the real value of the DOW is approximately 7200. I think the current sell off is not due to the real value of the market, but due to investor ignorance, war, government, and accounting practices. Finally, some of the air is escaping the balloon. I still can't figure out why it is taking so long for the market to reach its real value. I suspect that a lot of the money is from 401K funds that people contribute to, but do not pay any attention to how they are performing.


Good Luck


Mark

some theoretical support around 7350...if dow does not hold there...down to at least 6500...i will guess 6250 as low...gl

I have no idea, this is such a guess. After all its an index and not of the types of stocks that are going to lead to the next bull run. I keep feeling its about bottom now and it keeps going down. As I said, its pointless to look at fundamentals right now, this is all about fear. What is really ridiculous is that the pundits write it off about "earnings disappointments", but the reality is earnings are far more positive than disappointing on average. One key name could have a small shortfall and that would push the indexes down in spite of 5 others have modest upside results. It really is the market where only the bad news is looked at. In that light who knows how far it goes. Its just quite clear that a lot of money is sitting there just waiting to get back in. Institutional money is loaded up to the gills right now looking for the correct entry point, one that will come only when the fear and market noise quiets down. After all why get into the market now when its been a daily downfall? If you miss the entry by a day or two its no big deal. With this in mind I think the market will find its bottom fairly soon and then it will have a very strong rally for a time, maybe 10-15% quickly up as there is all this money waiting to get back in. After that there probably will be some reconsolidation and then a slow trend up. Getting back to 9000 is a good question to, obviously it could be quite quick if the bottom is reached soon.

When the S&P reaches somewhere between 450 and 550, the Dow will be at or near bottom.