Place your bets, 51-to-49 odds in favor of Nuke attack on US soil

[wacki]

Can you believe this?
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"With a 10-ton nuclear weapon stolen from the former Soviet arsenal and delivered to an American city in a cargo container, al Qaeda could make 9/11 a footnote," said Allison, founding dean of Harvard's John F. Kennedy School of Government and a former assistant secretary of defense for policy and plans."

"A nuclear terrorist attack is more likely than not within the next decade," he told The Chronicle. To dramatize the point, he's accepting bets, at 51-to-49 odds, on such an event."

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cg...GOV89K4J90.DTL

[A_C_Slater]

A better bet would then be what city would they target? I would have to pick Detroit unfortunately, since it's an industrial powerhouse. Oh well. I'm dead.

[wacki]

A 10 ton or even 10 kilo ton would be much better suited for manhatten. Detroit would require a 1 megaton.

Still, I can't believe he accepting bets, and at those odds!

[Sponger15SB]

Those odds do not shock me in the least. I think its only a matter of time.

I think San Diego could be a nice target if they want to seriously f up our military, lets just hope I'm in school at the time.

[A_C_Slater]

Why did we have to go around being such infidels? Now we're gonna get it, finally our comuptence.

[sam h]

Ever since I heard about Allison's prediction and others from different defense policy people, I've been having a serious debate with myself. I love New York. I really want to move back there at some point (although I wonn't be able to for the next 4-5 years anyway).

But can living in New York in the next ten or fifteen years possibly be a smart move?

I'm serious about this. I just don't know.

[wacki]

[ QUOTE ]
But can living in New York in the next ten or fifteen years possibly be a smart move?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would strongly lean towards no. I'm not sure it would stop me though.

[Edge34]

Doesn't this belong in the politics forum? Who let you out, wacki?

BTW, I'd bet against...if it was going to happen, you'd think it would have happened by now.

[wacki]

It's a fine line, no politics are being discussed yet though. So I think it's safe to put in it OOT.

Correction, AC Slater brought up a little politics.

[sam h]

[ QUOTE ]
I would strongly lean towards no. I'm not sure it would stop me though.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's basically where I stand too.

Just to pull some figures ous my ass: Let's be conservative and say its actually a 25% chance of attack in the next ten years. And maybe its a 1/3 shot that they decide to hit New York. That's still a 1/12 chance. Granted you might not get killed if you're out of town or its a small bomb or whatever. But I still don't like those odds.