Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > General Gambling > Probability

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 11-18-2004, 07:04 AM
parappa parappa is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 441
Default Blackjack Variance

Hi--

Blackjack, .5% house advantage.

Does making 600 $5 bets have a higher or lower variance than making 1000 $3 bets where you are playing three hands at a time?
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 11-18-2004, 12:18 PM
Kenser Kenser is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 13
Default Re: Blackjack Variance

If I remember, the numbers for playing 3 hands are approx. 57% of the 1 hand bet. In your example for 3 hands the proper bet size would be $2.85. So $3 on 3 hands would have a higher variance than the single $5.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 11-18-2004, 01:13 PM
parappa parappa is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 441
Default Re: Blackjack Variance

Thanks very much.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 11-18-2004, 01:46 PM
mannika mannika is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: KTown Ghetto
Posts: 291
Default Re: Blackjack Variance

If the total amount being wagered is the same (in this case it is), the higher variance option will be the one with the least trials, or the greater amount being bet.

Think of the extreme. If you were to only make one $3000 bet, compared to 10 $300 bets, which would have the higher variance? The one $3000 bet obviously would.

So making 1000 $3 bets is the lower variance option.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 11-19-2004, 09:18 AM
parappa parappa is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 441
Default Re: Blackjack Variance

Hmm. That seems to contradict the previous response...I was going to disagree with you mentioning the covariance of playing 3 at once, but you have sidestepped that by treating it as one $3 bet.

Now I"m confused.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 11-19-2004, 02:11 PM
Kenser Kenser is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 13
Default Re: Blackjack Variance

I just know to get the same amount of risk and profit potential on 1 hand compared to multiple hands(this takes into account splits/double downs) you place 73% of your 1 hand wager on 2 hands and 57% on 3 hands. 57% of $5 is $2.85 for your example. Of course you could not bet this odd amount. These figures give you the same risk on 1,2 or 3 hands. The number of rounds has nothing to do with it. If you play more rounds with a higher risk, your variance will increase.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 11-19-2004, 02:40 PM
Kenser Kenser is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 13
Default Followup Point

I suggest you post the question @ one of the many free blackjack boards. Many people there will give you an answer and are more versed than myself. The 2 that I suggest are advantageplayer.com and bj21.com.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 11-19-2004, 07:01 PM
parappa parappa is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 441
Default Re: Blackjack Variance

[ QUOTE ]
I just know to get the same amount of risk and profit potential on 1 hand compared to multiple hands(this takes into account splits/double downs) you place 73% of your 1 hand wager on 2 hands and 57% on 3 hands. 57% of $5 is $2.85 for your example. Of course you could not bet this odd amount. These figures give you the same risk on 1,2 or 3 hands. The number of rounds has nothing to do with it. If you play more rounds with a higher risk, your variance will increase.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh, I've got it. So what you're saying is that 3 bets of $2.85 each produces the same variance as one bet of $5. But $2.85*3=8.55/bet. Since $1*3<$2.85*3, Mannika's answer is obviously correct for the question I asked, and your answer is the variance-levelling bet size.

Thanks to both.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 11-19-2004, 09:31 PM
Reef Reef is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Spokompton
Posts: 551
Default Re: Blackjack Variance

lower the bet size, lower the variance. With $2 bets and a $200 initial deposit (with a $200 bonus), the odds of getting lower than $200 after wagering 2k are practically Nil. Run a search for Homer's post on it
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:33 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.