#1
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Probabilities the blinds hold/hit a pair on the flop?
Assuming both blinds call any time they have two cards, what percantage of time will at least one of them hold a pocket pair, or hit a pair or better on the flop?
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#2
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Re: Probabilities the blinds hold/hit a pair on the flop?
If both blinds hold 2 non pair different cards, one of them will pair roughly 2/3 of the time I believe.
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#3
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Re: Probabilities the blinds hold/hit a pair on the flop? *DELETED*
Post deleted by Mat Sklansky
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#4
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Correction - Disregard my post above
Please disregard my previous post. When the blinds have no preflop pair, they can still share 0, 1 or 2 ranks in common, and each of these has a different conditional probability of flopping a pair. We have to consider the probability of each of these cases separately, in addition to the case of a preflop pair. As a check, we can verify that these probabilities sum to 1.
preflop pair: 1/17 + (16/17)*72/C(50,2) = 0.114141657 no preflop pair cases: 0 rank in common: (16/17)*44*40/2 / C(50,2) = 0.676110444 1 rank in common: (16/17)*6*44 / C(50,2) = 0.202833133 2 ranks in common: (16/17)*3*3 / C(50,2) = 0.006914766 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- total: 1.000000000 Now each of these get multiplied by the appropriate conditional probability of flopping a pair. We are only counting cases where a hole card pairs, not when the flop pairs. preflop pair: 1/17 + (16/17)*72/C(50,2) = 0.114141657 no preflop pair cases: 0 ranks in common: (16/17)*44*40/2 / C(50,2) * [1 - C(36,3) / C(48,3) ] = 0.397003797 1 rank in common: (16/17)*6*44 / C(50,2) * [1 - C(40,3)/C(48,3) ] = 0.086968693 2 ranks in common: (16/17)*3*3 / C(50,2) * [1 - C(44,3)/ C(48,3) ] = 0.001619949 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 59.97%. |
#5
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Re: Correction - Disregard my post above
The party don't start til' BruceZ walks in [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img].
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#6
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Re: Correction - Disregard my post above
Jesus :/ I could barely get through highschool math. Hahaha,
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