#1
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Flop Probability
Does anyone know how to figure your odds of hitting an 8 out straight draw on the flop with 67? Please tell me your formulas and reasoning. Also do your calculations include Double gutted straight draws?
Thanks [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] |
#2
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Re: Flop Probability
Not sure what you mean by double gutted, but...
For open-ended straight draws only, not flopped strights: 1. 6789 2. 4567 3. 5678 How many flops will give you 1? That is, how many contain an 8 and 9 but no five or ten? 4*4*(52-2-2-4-4) = 4*4*42=672 Simalarly for 2 and 3. So 672*3 = 2016 flops give us the 8 out straight draw. Total number of possible flops is: ncr(50,3)=19600 2016/19600=.1028 making you a 9 to 1 dog for the draw. gm |
#3
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Re: Flop Probability
1. 98x x/= T,5,9,8 4*4*36 (50-3-3-4-4) =576
2. 988 4*4*3/2=24 3. 998 =24 totals 624 for each of the 3 combinations that make non- double gut straights, 98? 85? and 65?=1872. 4. T84 4*4*4=64 5. 953 =64 So the double gut possiblity adds 128 combinations for a total of 2000. Total number of flops is C(50,3)=19,600 so the odds of flopping a 8 draw straight is 10.2%. |
#4
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Re: Flop Probability
1. 98x x/= T,5,9,8 4*4*36 (50-3-3-4-4) =576
Should be 4*4*34 (50-4-4-4-4) = 544 Otherwise you are correct. Lost Wages |
#5
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Hmmmm
Thanks. Thats what I got (but my work was alot longer)I just want sure it was right since its supposed to be harder to get a flush than a straight. My work said it was about one percent easier to get the flush draw and once you got the draw youd have 9 outs instead of 8. I guess it must be significantly easier to get connecting starting cards than flush cards but it seems to me that if you get an 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] then you have 8 cards that would connect and 12 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]s.
I guess theres just more possible straights to make, and unplayable hands like 5 9 can make straights, just not good ones. Thanks for ya'lls help |
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