US Dollar? Going Further Down?

[mecha]

Does anyone have any forecasts on where the US Dollar is heading?

[Ray Zee]

everyone. same as with the market. if they could be accurate they would be having lunch with george soros.

[maroondude]

In general, I am long the USD vs. every major currency except the JPY which could continue to firm up relative to the USD. In terms of the Euro, it has been at or near the all time high for the past few days. I think a sell off/ profit taking may be in the making and you could see retracement to the 1.25 level by year's end. Having said that the Euro has been trading in a very tight range since the election and the big boys and the banks are just waiting to push the market and knock out many smaller trader's stops. What I really like is the CHF which is trading at about 1.1775. Barring a major attack on the US or Palistine really heating up, this should be a very good buy.I am a registered broker, give me a call at work 1-800-371-3581 if you want to talk about this more.

[PhatPots]

I hope it goes up. I am from Canada and it kills my cash outs [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] I got 1.17 CAN for every US dollar the other day, insane! Very bad for the Canadian export industry, very bad indeed

[adios]

Bad for a lot of countries exports. Part of the Bush administration economic policy methinks.

[maroondude]

In terms of the USD/CAD it is down over 7.3 % for the year and sitting at or near its 12 year low. My guess is that given this there will be a strong rally for the USD over the next 6 months to a year. Given that the US will probably raise short term interest rates another 25 basis points in the next few months, I see a positive long term trend. Sorry that this has hurt your cash out status. If you want to hedge some of your exposure or speculate in the FX markets, give me a call 1-800-371-3581.

[laserboy]

Well Warren Buffett is sitting on about $20 billion worth of foreign currencies after never having invested in foreign currency for decades, if that means anything to you.

[arabie]

Really? Thats very intersting, do you have a news link?

[laserboy]

http://www.smartmoney.com/bn/ON/inde...05-000996-1915

[ QUOTE ]
Berkshire's foreign-currency position, which involves eight currencies and is widely referred to as Mr. Buffett's bet against the U.S. dollar, grew in value to about $20 billion, up from $19 billion at June 30.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here is an article of his written about a year ago (the dollar is down over 10% vs. the Euro since then):

http://www.pbs.org/wsw/news/fortunea...031026_03.html

[Scuba Chuck]

If anyone has any serious interest in understanding where the dollar is going, spend some time studying the current account deficit.

The current account deficit is -5.7% of GDP. An All time high. The previous all time high was -5.0%. That was in 1929. The next high is -3.4%. That was in 1987. The dollar saw significant declines following those periods, besides the obvious stock market implications.

How far has the dollar fallen before? Well during the 1970's, the dollar lost over 70% of its value. With the likely coming oil shocks, I would consider the dollar depreciation a 90% likely probability over a 2-4 year time period. Next 6 months - who knows.

Is my money where my mouth is? Hell yeah.