Road Trip: Final Report—Foxwoods

[Mark Heide]

On Saturday, I left Atlantic City for Foxwoods. Found a motel called Hilltop Inn & Suites four miles from the casino. Rates were not cheap here, so I decided to check in for two nights and possibly look for something else—it cost me $279 for two nights.

After checking in, drove in to Foxwoods. It was next to impossible to find a parking spot. Plus, the layout of the place is confusing—I felt like a rat in a maze. Finally, I found a space to park. Eventually, I found my way to the poker room, but was disappointed, the waiting lists were too long to get into a game. I then had to search around to find out where they were playing the satellites for the tournament—which were being held in a conference room, downstairs, at the other end of the casino.

I ended up playing two $80 satellites for the $500 No-Limit Tournament for Sunday. The satellite paid $650. On the first satellite I played, I ran into Myrtle who introduced himself to me. I asked Myrtle if he knew John Cole. He was not sure if he remembered him. Anyway, I busted out of the first satellite and made a deal on the second one for $200. So, I'm $40 ahead. After playing, I went to the buffet to eat dinner. Not, a place I'd recommend (unless you like the food that Ray Zee likes—as you know Ray does not have taste buds).

On Sunday, I went back to Foxwoods and entered the $500 No-Limit Tournament. Well, I did pretty well up until 8:20 PM. There were 850 entrants and they were paying 80 places. The monitor screen said that we had 93 players left until I played the following hand. The two players to my left had approximately $6000 in chips left. Both players did not play unless they had a hand like AT or a medium pair or better. I was down to $2200 with the blinds at $600-300 with a $100 ante. Everyone folded to me on the button. I decided that the cards I was holding didn't matter. These guys were not going to risk their chips so close to the money unless they had a real hand, so I pushed in my chips, which was still a big enough raise for neither of them to get involved. The small blind thinks for quite a while, I thought he was going to fold because he thought about it so long, but he calls me. He's got a pair of 9s and I have 68 unsuited. Well, you know what happens. I'm out of there. What a disappointment, to play for over 10 hours and just miss getting into the prize pool.

I decided to call it quits and headed for home on Monday.

Good Luck

Mark

[Easy E]

maybe that's why I don't play in tournaments much

<font color="blue">The two players to my left had approximately $6000 in chips left. Both players did not play unless they had a hand like AT or a medium pair or better. I was down to $2200 with the blinds at $600-300 with a $100 ante. Everyone folded to me on the button.

I decided that the cards I was holding didn't matter. These guys were not going to risk their chips so close to the money unless they had a real hand, so I pushed in my chips, which was still a big enough raise for neither of them to get involved. The small blind thinks for quite a while, I thought he was going to fold because he thought about it so long, but he calls me. He's got a pair of 9s and I have 68 unsuited.</font>

So, you go for a steal from the button, where you are more likely going to be seen as stealing... and you don't even check your cards to see if stealing here has any outs in case two 3x stacks with blind money in already might call you to knock you out, this close to the money.

And this makes sense... as opposed to looking, deciding the play would be more effective with only the new BB to worry about? I think I give up the extra $100 here and wait for another hand.

[sammysusar]

its probably a pretty good play as long as are the assumptions about the players are correct. the likelihood of the fold probably more than compsensates for the 2 - 1 dog he would be against 2 overcards . an overpair is quite unlikely and unlucky to run into.
raising on the button will cause weaker hands to call however in this situation with the stack sizes it souns like these players would have only called with good hands.

[Mark Heide]

Easy E,

My decision for moving all-in on the button is based on several factors, including my opponents understanding of tournament strategy, their quality of play, and what they think I am thinking. First, both opponents appear to understand which hands hold up in a heads up confrontation. The player in the big blind had moved-in in middle position with AQ and doubled up, the small blind had called an all-in with AT and doubled up. So, I estimate that they value ace-anything and pairs as hands that are needed to play in these situations. Since, there are 13 pairs with 6 combinations of each for a total of 78 pair combinations and 12 ace-anything with 16 combinations of each for a total of 192 ace-anything combinations. The 78 pair and 192 ace-anything combinations give a total of 270 playable all-in hands. I believe both of my opponents would put me on one of these hands.

Some other factors to consider is the size of there stacks and how close to the prize money we are. Both the big and small blind had approximately $6000 in chips. For these reasons I believe that they would not risk any chips unless they thought that they had a better hand than me. Let's assume that they both believe I would only make that all-in move with a hand that would play well heads up and assume that 270 possible combinations are one of those hands. I believe that either one of these players would not risk a significant amount of their stack unless they had at least a pair of 8s or higher and AK, AQ, AJ, or AT. If I assume this to be correct, there is only 106 possible combinations they will play. Since, there are a total of 1326 possible card combinations that they can be dealt, each of my opponents has an 8% chance to get a hand that they will play against my possible 20%. The combined chances of both opponents getting a hand they will call me with would be 16%. So, I am an 84% favorite to pick up the pot uncontested. But, in this situation, one of them did pick up that chance and called.

Good Luck

Mark

[Mark Heide]

sammysusar,

I agree. With the most important part being the assumptions about the players. After I was called and turned over my hand, the small blind looked quite surprized that I had a hand as weak as I did. See my post to Easy E for my analysis.

Good Luck

Mark

[Easy E]

Mark, I agree with everything that you said... except for not looking.

I'd even agree that you could look at the 86 and make the same play, since you'd only be a huge dog to overpairs.

But you'd have felt awfully silly (well, maybe only LOOKED that way) if you'd turned over 72. I'd want to at least KNOW how far uphill I might have to climb before making this move.

Part of my reasoning is, it's doesn't seem to be a +EV move, from a cashing perspective (unlike a cash game, where you can consider just the pot). If you lose 16% of the time, you bust out and have nothing. If you win 84%, you probably double up but are still short-stacked with a dozen players to go until getting into the money. Do you really gain over 5:1 with this move, from a financial perspective?

Do you think making this move on the NEXT hand, in the cutoff against a button and SB that you had such a good read on, would be better if you looked and saw the 86o? You'd add the new BB as an additional factor, but unless they were a huge stack, they face the same fears about being crippled and out of the money.

It's the no-look that I disagree with, not making a move with a weak but likely undominated hand.

[B00T]

Correct me if I am wrong but I dont see any reference to him not looking at his hand...

I was under the assumption that he was going to push no matter what he had, but still looked at the cards.

If I saw my opponent pushing without looking at his cards, and I have him covered if I have K10 I am calling...

[Turning Stone Pro]

I found this to be a very nice hotel and a very manageable distance away from F-woods. It does have 24 hr weekend shuttle service every 1/2 hr to the casino.

It was expensive, however, at about $135.00 per night or so, per my recollection.

For those looking for a summer weekend getaway with the significant other, it does make for a nice play to stay. It is close to the casino but convenient to get down to the ocean in the daytime, as well.

TSP

[Easy E]

<font color="blue"> I decided that the cards I was holding didn't matter </font>

And I referred to not seeing the cards in both of my replies.

Mark, did you push in the dark, or did you decide to push, then saw the 86 and pushed anyway?

[Easy E]

Latest Jackpot Jay article on ESPN:

<font color="blue"> I was in the small blind, and I decided, without looking at my cards, that if it was folded around to me, I was going all-in. Not to belabor the obvious, but I figured it was about 3-1 that a random hand would fold in the big blind to an all-in bet -- even for only $8,000 -- and that even if I was called, I'd be, at worst, a 70-30 underdog, as long as the big blind didn't have an overpair and both my cards were live.


Which was almost exactly what happened. Everybody folded, I went all-in .. and the big blind called before I could push my chips toward the pot. Then he turned over 8-8, and I flipped over my hole cards ...<font color="red"> 8-2 unsuited.</font>


Oops.