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Old 10-28-2004, 06:35 PM
BarkingMad BarkingMad is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Seattle
Posts: 33
Default Probability of someone calling your all in bet

You are playing No limit Hold Em (tournament or ring, doesn't matter).

You are UTG at a full table and move all in. You somehow know you will only be called by an S&M Group1 hand (AA, KK, QQ, JJ, & AKs).

What is the probability that at least 1 of the 9 players yet to act has an S&M group1 hand?



Does the formula provided by Precision1C & uuDevil in the "Probability of getting a decent hand in the next orbit" thread apply here?

1326 possible hole card combo's

AA thru JJ = 6 each * 4 = 24
AKs = 4

1326 - 28 = 1298 ways to not make an S&M Group1 hand.

1298 / 1326 = .9789

Take .9789 to the power of players yet to act (9) & subtract from 1...

1 - .9789 ^ 9 = .1746

Answer - There is a 17.46% chance that you will be called.

Is this right?

TIA
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