#1
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Small Stakes Probability/Odds Question: Calling a Raise from the BB
Long intro, but trying to document my thought process so that smarter people (than me) can comment.
While playing in a typical PP game (4-6 see the flop many times for 2 sb) I found myself in the sb and bb with a couple of limpers a raiser and the action is to me. I hold drawing hands (suited, connectors, suited connectors) that I would love to see a flop-for-free, but wouldn't normally play. My general rule was to not call a raise from the bb with a hand I normally wouldn't limp with... I've also read over and over again that pot odds don't drive smart decisions pre-flop EV does. Yet I could not believe some of the odds I was getting in a very loose, multi-way game. So, rather than quickly post something up asking for advice, I searched this forum and found nothing. I then referenced the following: Pr(4-flush|2-suited) = 0.1178 Pr(4-straight|2-connected) = .1028 Pr(4-flush and/or 4-straight|2-suited-connected) = .1910. So, assuming that you will have the correct odds to draw out, if you hit your flop, I converted these probabilities to pot odds... Suited->7.49:1 Connected->8.73:1 Suited&Connected->4.24:1 It seems like the implied odds are also strong for these hands, and if the pot is giving the correct odds pre-flop, should't I be throwing one more bet into see the flop? Comments? Am I missing an obvious point? Reference posts? |
#2
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Re: Small Stakes Probability/Odds Question: Calling a Raise from the B
I don't make these calls because I don't like being out of position with a draw. I like to be acting near the button with a draw, so I can make a free card play if I want to.
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#3
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Re: Small Stakes Probability/Odds Question: Calling a Raise from the B
But a check to the pre-flop raiser puts you in PERFECT position to CR the flop if you do hit!
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#4
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Re: Small Stakes Probability/Odds Question: Calling a Raise from the B
Unless you're getting alot of callers along with the PF raisers bet, there aren't very many hands you're gonna wanan check raise with here.
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