#1
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Extrapolating a Win Rate
Let's assume I have a true win rate of 2 BB's/100 and my standard deviation is 20 BB's/100.
What is the correct way to extrapolate these values for 1, 2 and 3 standard deviation intervals over n hands? |
#2
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Re: Extrapolating a Win Rate
[ QUOTE ]
Let's assume I have a true win rate of 2 BB's/100 and my standard deviation is 20 BB's/100. What is the correct way to extrapolate these values for 1, 2 and 3 standard deviation intervals over n hands? [/ QUOTE ] Mean win = (n/100)*2 ySD = y*20*(n/100)^.5, for y standard deviations So for a session of n hands, you can expect that roughly two-thirds of the times your results will fall within the range of: (n/100)*2 +/- 20*(n/100)^.5, or 1SD around the mean ~95% of the time, your results will fall within 2SD, or (n/100)*2 +/- 2*20*(n/100)^.5 In your example, if you play a 400 hand session, expect to fall in the range of -32 to +48 big bets with two-thirds probability, and -72 to +88 big bets with 95% probability. |
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