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  #1  
Old 10-24-2001, 12:38 PM
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Default current market conditions



whats everyone's opinion on the outlook for the market now. has it near bottomed as most of the bad news is out. or will it continue down as the news sinks in. or wil another terrorist incident cause a crash? what sectors should have the best results.
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  #2  
Old 10-25-2001, 04:16 AM
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Default Re: current market conditions



Uncertain times are often a good time to go long the stock market.


Now does not seem like one of those times.


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Old 10-25-2001, 04:28 AM
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Default Re: current market conditions



Long term you could invest now and do very well; however, I think you'd be well advise to keep a significant portion in cash, because the best values will most likely come early next year.


Specifically I'd look for retail stocks to have a mediocre holiday season, and come down for a good buy in January, and possibly make a strong comeback within a year or two.


-D
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Old 10-25-2001, 03:59 PM
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Default Same Recommendation When You Posted Last Time



I said go long QQQ and SPY when VIX got over 40. VIX actually got up to 57. VIX was over 40 when I posted so if you bought QQQ the next day it was about $29 and SPY was $99. At this time SPY is $110 and QQQ is $36.60. I also recommended selling when VIX goes below 25. Thats pretty conservative and you could hold till lower but I'll stick with 25 and not be greedy. VIX is at around 31. So I'd just be holding right now and take profits when the VIX hit my number.


Little worried about VIX as more mention of it but it seems to only last a day or so and people forget about it.
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Old 10-25-2001, 04:16 PM
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Default Re: current market conditions



Well, it sould be choppy with more terrorism news like anthrax scares. But watch out for the earthquake that will hit in the first week of November, which will produce a rally.


Bill
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  #6  
Old 10-25-2001, 08:47 PM
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Default Re: Same Recommendation When You Posted Last Time



i tend to think at least short long term trends rather than day by day stuff. the s&p 100 volitility index is way too much out of my league. i cant believe that it makes any difference over more than a few days of trading. once it has a following though that in itself can make it useful for trends. such as the dogs of the dow theory. it worked looking back and continued on, as so many people bought the stocks, but alas, the smoke cleared and the dogs of the dow barffed. maybe it will prove out i dont know.

i like the spiders idea but i usually stick with individual stocks. though shorting the spiders when the market is stumbling works, maybe. i havent messed with QQQ yet.

at this point in the market im thinking that the bet is to follow what the big funds are doing as they will push those sectors up and then get out quick as the fanfare dies. but as i say i dont trade too much that way execpt to make big plays when i see something that is waky.



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  #7  
Old 10-25-2001, 08:51 PM
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Default Re: current market conditions



i am not good with the retail stocks as they are hard to evalute and seem to move more on speculative earnings which i am not privy to. but if retail stocks start to move up i look at colateral companies like maybe trucking companies, as someone has to deliver the stuff. this way you can be slow to move and get in on the ground floor with much less risk.
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Old 10-25-2001, 10:55 PM
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Default Re: current market conditions



I would avoid buying much of anything right now. There is going to be a ridiculous amount of tax loss selling by the big players before the year is over. In January it will probably be time to go 100% long in the market. Sectors to buy will probably be things that were ignored the past 5 years. Small caps and value should do well. It's possible Europe and Japan will do really well especially since the dollar is going to weaken because of all the liquidity pumped into the economy and the slower (or negative) growth relative to overseas.


Technology will lag vs. the rest of the market for a few years.


I wouldn't worry at all about the terrorism. They're not having enough of an effect on things for the market to worry too much about it.


Just my opinion...I've been wrong before.
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  #9  
Old 10-26-2001, 01:23 AM
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Default Re: current market conditions



Bill/Nigel's post makes as much if not more sense than the rest. Without a crystal ball, there's just no telling, and even if you had the crystal ball you'd have to guess which way things would move after the earthquake.


All joking about earthquakes aside, I'm shorting QQQ after the meteor strike...
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  #10  
Old 10-26-2001, 02:38 AM
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Default Re: Same Recommendation When You Posted Last Time



The VIX over 40 is fairly unusual event. At 57 it was very unusual. The only reason I used the VIX as a buy signal was that I'm fairly certain the markets are close to their bottoms and from market history spikes in the VIX have marked a good buy point after major declines. Of course I've got a lot of company in making that observation. Sometime overlay a 15 year chart of the S&P 500 onto a chart of the VIX it's very interesting at least to me. I base the sell signal on where the VIX has bottomed out over the past 5 years or so and I'm being conservative. It's just something I watch. The main thing is that all indicators both financial and economic point to a turn around in the economy sometime in the first half of next year and I believe the stock market is starting to anticipate it.


QQQ's are much more volatile than SPY's as I'm sure you are aware of. With earnings so uncertain now it's hard for me to zero in on individual stocks so I'm just trying to be on the right side of the markets.
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