Correct to check? or Missed Bets?

Asim · #1 11-24-2005, 12:03 AM

villan stats = 59.3/9.26/1.13

I have seen him ch/r a few times before, and wasnt prepared to showdown for 2 bets... that was my main reasoning for checking.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls, MP calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP checks, Hero bets, BB folds, MP calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets, MP calls.

River: (6.25 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 6.25 BB

jaxUp · #2 11-24-2005, 12:09 AM

step 1: come up with a range of hands (try to weight them too)
step2: figure out how often he calls the river based on step 1
step3: figure out he c/r's river based on step 1
step4: use 2 and 3 to find out the EV of betting and checking

Which one's better?

Asim · #3 11-24-2005, 12:13 AM

wanna help me go through this thinking part? i have always had problems with figuring out a range of hands

jaxUp · #4 11-24-2005, 12:20 AM

the range will narrow as we go through the steps

1)Consider what hands would defend preflop?

not helpful as many players defend any 2.

2) consider what hands play the flop this way

a K probably would, a FD would, an A likely would, and 8 would

3)consider (from 2) which hands play the turn this way

a K probably wouldn't, but might a small percentage of the time
An Ace probably would, an 8 probably would, a flush draw would

based on experience, and how he played the hand, at the river I think he has:

an A 30% of the time
a K 5% of the time
an 8 40% of the time
A flush 25% of the time

Augster · #5 11-24-2005, 12:32 AM

I like it.

I just can't bet a pair of A's on a board with KK and the flush just made it.

I'm thankful for the free showdown and fully expect to see the flush made here or K-rag.

nh.

jaxUp · #6 11-24-2005, 12:32 AM

we hear from a K on the turn here almost every time.

#7 11-24-2005, 12:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]
the range will narrow as we go through the steps

1)Consider what hands would defend preflop?

not helpful as many players defend any 2.

2) consider what hands play the flop this way

a K probably would, a FD would, an A likely would, and 8 would

3)consider (from 2) which hands play the turn this way

a K probably wouldn't, but might a small percentage of the time
An Ace probably would, an 8 probably would, a flush draw would

based on experience, and how he played the hand, at the river I think he has:

an A 30% of the time
a K 5% of the time
an 8 40% of the time
A flush 25% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

What you're saying is...if he calls with an Ace 100% and calls with an 8 a non zero amount of time - you bet. Right?

jaxUp · #8 11-24-2005, 12:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the range will narrow as we go through the steps

1)Consider what hands would defend preflop?

not helpful as many players defend any 2.

2) consider what hands play the flop this way

a K probably would, a FD would, an A likely would, and 8 would

3)consider (from 2) which hands play the turn this way

a K probably wouldn't, but might a small percentage of the time
An Ace probably would, an 8 probably would, a flush draw would

based on experience, and how he played the hand, at the river I think he has:

an A 30% of the time
a K 5% of the time
an 8 40% of the time
A flush 25% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

What you're saying is...if he calls with an Ace 100% and calls with an 8 a non zero amount of time - you bet. Right?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not entirely sure...I can't concentrate right now (4-tabling), so I am wanting somebody (preferably OP) to run the math

edit: also, I want to specify that included with 8 is another mid-low pp. I am also thinking the probability of an 8 and an A should probably be switched.

jaxUp · #9 11-24-2005, 02:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]
the range will narrow as we go through the steps

1)Consider what hands would defend preflop?

not helpful as many players defend any 2.

2) consider what hands play the flop this way

a K probably would, a FD would, an A likely would, and 8 would

3)consider (from 2) which hands play the turn this way

a K probably wouldn't, but might a small percentage of the time
An Ace probably would, an 8 probably would, a flush draw would

based on experience, and how he played the hand, at the river I think he has:

an A 30% of the time
a K 5% of the time
an 8 40% of the time
A flush 25% of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, here's the math, since nobody bothered to do it:

First, I am changing probability of an A from 30 to 40, and an 8 (or mid pp) from 40 to 30. Also, I will assume he always c/r's a K or flush, never a worse hand, and that we fold the the c/r.

so, in order for this to be profitable, he must call more often than he check/raises. This is because on a c/r we lose 1 bet, and on a call we win one bet.

We know he will call every time with an A, and say 1/3 of the time with an 8/pp.

So he calls 55% of the time and c/r's 30% of the time, so when we bet we win an average of .25BB's.

If you can't fold to the c/r, it would be best to fold.