suckout, or missed bets?

trigeek08 · #1 11-23-2005, 05:59 PM

Villain is 75.5/0/.36 over 15 hands
When I am 3-bet on the turn, is my best plan to cap it, call down, or fold?

PokerRoom 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) PokerRoom Converter at BonusHunting.net

Preflop: Hero is mp-2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 2 folds, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (8 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 players)
UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, Button calls, UTG folds, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (5.5 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
UTG+2 bets, Hero raises, Button calls, UTG+2 3-bets, Hero...

UATrewqaz · #2 11-23-2005, 06:05 PM

If he has JJ it was the worst played JJ in the history of poker.

I smell JT hitting two pair, which of course you are killing with your kings and three's.

Cap it I say.

MrWookie47 · #3 11-23-2005, 06:05 PM

Raising is out of the question. The pot is so large at this point that I'm going to call down, but that might be slightly bad.

Arcturus · #4 11-23-2005, 06:08 PM

I would cap the turn. His turn re-raise could come from him putting you on two overcards. You are probably still ahead unless he hit two pair with the J. If he did, he will most likely lead out on the river. At that point, just call down.

Edit: Ok, you would still be ahead since you have a better two pair. I would still just call if he lead out on the river.

SoftcoreRevolt · #5 11-23-2005, 06:08 PM

I'd call down even if the pot wasn't so small when a villain starts showing aggression after an overcard falls. The donk bet makes a 3 so very unlikely, but the 3 bet starts making it seem possible. I agree that JT is more likely than 3x though.

#6 11-23-2005, 06:16 PM

Pot isn't big so I could fold. With numbers like that, I'm thinking he could have two pair..I doubt it, but more likely he played J3 or JJ, and you're WB. From experience with a couple of similar hands, loose passives come alive like this with very big hands.

Edit: I might call down to see the hand for future reference, and make a note.

2nd Edit: Am I the only one who believes this type of player rarely looks up from his own two cards? The majority of the time they aren't thinking about what others are playing. It just doesn't happen. Put yourself into the mind of a LPP and try to see how he thinks. C'mon OP has been aggressive all the way, and this guy donks when a Jack comes. He may have two pair but his re-raise makes me seriously doubt it.

Felipe · #7 11-23-2005, 06:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Pot isn't big so I could fold. With numbers like that, I'm thinking he could have two pair..I doubt it, but more likely he played J3 or JJ, and you're WB. From experience with a couple of similar hands, loose passives come alive like this with very big hands.

Edit: I might call down to see the hand for future reference, and make a note.

2nd Edit: Am I the only one who believes this type of player rarely looks up from his own two cards? The majority of the time they aren't thinking about what others are playing. It just doesn't happen. Put yourself into the mind of a LPP and try to see how he thinks. C'mon OP has been aggressive all the way, and this guy donks when a Jack comes. He may have two pair but his re-raise makes me seriously doubt it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Makes sense against a Lpp fish. What about a tricky 75%/11%/2.9? Do you call down or re-raise the turn?

Stealthy · #8 11-23-2005, 06:28 PM

I call this down. I don't like to cap here without more evidence of maniac tendacies. A fold is out of the question.

#9 11-23-2005, 06:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Makes sense against a Lpp fish. What about a tricky 75%/11%/2.9? Do you call down or re-raise the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a tougher question. My experience with Loose aggressives is more limited. In that case I think I'd cap the turn and bet/call the river.

#10 11-23-2005, 06:31 PM

You should probably fold. This turn donk appears to be the slow-played trips. You're more than likely way behind. Capping is spewing, but calling down would be OK if you wanted to make notes.