Another AK hand (AK is giving me tons of trouble)

[valenzuela]

U already did 30 years ago [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

[microbet]

Well, that was before you were born, and it was more like military aid and training leading to the overthrow of the democratically elected Chilean government, but close enough.

I'd say "my bad", but I was only 5, so it wasn't my fault.

[valenzuela]

U should say "my bad" for wanting to fold AK.

[microbet]

When he flips over his cards, you're going to be 43% to win.

[Karak567]

"My bad."

Thanks for slapping some sense into me, gents, heh.

[microbet]

? Who is slapping sense into you? I'm the only one saying fold - assuming you haven't seen anything crazy out of him yet.

What happened, and had you seen anything crazy out of him prior to this?

[Karak567]

Eh, guess I misread some of the posts (4-tabling and watching baseball, haha).

I was 4-tabling and really didn't have a good read on him.

[Scorpion Man]

Microbet, I have a general question for you. I am not a frequent poster but I have seen you using ICM a couple times. In this case, it is a situation where you are saying its 43% to win. That is same as 1.325/1 odds. Pot is laying you 1.37/1.00.

He could easily be pushing AK as well, in which case you are throwing away a lot of equity.

So my question is this...if you are playing a live game (or even an online game depending on how quick you are with ICM)...how do you make these decisions? I would tend to go with pot odds at this point in the tourney...And again you are using a few % point difference on a model that is not precise -- and you are using 4 (!) significant digits...for example if I round your .0835 to ..08 to match the sig digits for your .18 I get 44.4% which is basically a dead heat.

I understand you say if its this close its not worth it and I think that is style dependent and fine. What I dont understand is how you make decisions like this while playing in the real world?

Not trying to flame you, just wondering how to apply this kind of post to the real world. I would argue there is zero chance that someone can make calculations with this precision on the fly, in addition to the aforementioned problem that I think within the error of the model its a wash.

For what its worth I am calling here (particularly in these small tourneys) because I have seen lesser hands than the ones that get you 43% over and over again.

Thanks.

[valenzuela]

Lets suppose ur 43% is right which I think is not, its still a +$EV call...Ok u asked for it math time.
U have 16 bux and 50 cents making ur wussy fold.
Now if u double up you now have 36 bux and 30 cents. So 36.3*0,43= 15,5 before u start jumping up and down I have some news for you.
U fold 7 times: U recovered 116 bux
U call 7 times: U recovered 109 bux
But since u called 7 times...4 of those times u only plyed 10 minutes and the times u won u took 35 minutes to play, the times u folded u took 32 minutes to play( estimated guesses)
So: 35*3 + 10*4= 145
32*7= 224.
U won 79 minutes and lost 7 bux, we just need to have a 13% ROI on the 22s to make the call profitable IF we win 43% of the time. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[microbet]

I never count time. I will add tables long before I let $/hr affect how I play a hand.