Theory: Approach to Very Short Stack Play

[Degen]

I didn't see anybody in this thread refute why Darse's strategy does not apply here. People just gave what they would do, but without much explanation for why (mathematically as opposed to opinion).

BB should be calling w/ any two right here (granted people do not always do what they are supposed to).

Don't have a lot of time right now to think this through and give a better reply but I'd sure like to see a math guy go to town on this one. IMO disproving my claim that this apply's to an SNG is the same as disproving Darse's claim that it applys to a MTT. The principles are the same (huge pot odds, waiting for the money, you bust your dead etc).

[downtown]

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't see anybody in this thread refute why Darse's strategy does not apply here. People just gave what they would do, but without much explanation for why (mathematically as opposed to opinion).

BB should be calling w/ any two right here (granted people do not always do what they are supposed to).

Don't have a lot of time right now to think this through and give a better reply but I'd sure like to see a math guy go to town on this one. IMO disproving my claim that this apply's to an SNG is the same as disproving Darse's claim that it applys to a MTT. The principles are the same (huge pot odds, waiting for the money, you bust your dead etc).

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm right there with you Degen. I would like to see it proved or disproved as well.

Here is something I was thinking about as far as this concept in MTT v. STT goes. Unless the MTT is very small, or every table on the bubble is observed by each participant, the avg. size stack that busts may not be paying much if any attention to what's happening with the short stack, which is massively +EV for the shorty's survival. However, in a STT that shorty is sitting right there, and everyone knows it. It's the fundamental reason we're able to abuse the bubble so effectively, but it also means that we are unlikely to reap the same benefits Darse writes about.

I don't like the K2 push from the CO either.

I'm perplexed by your statement that SNGPT says that it's a good push... I don't see it, though maybe I entered something wrong.

For BB calling any two, SB maniac, Button maniac, it's -EV. It's possible that these hand ranges are incorrect, but I think that it can be argued that they are at least reasonable.

An interesting thing about this is that if BB is any two, SB is any two, and Button is maniac--- it's +EV.

The OP says "Now in retrospect, I realize that it is likely that I will be called in more than one spot here being so short, and therefore I may need to be stronger Than K2o to push here."

This appears to be wrong. The more spots that you get called in, the more +EV it becomes.

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't see anybody in this thread refute why Darse's strategy does not apply here. People just gave what they would do, but without much explanation for why (mathematically as opposed to opinion).

BB should be calling w/ any two right here (granted people do not always do what they are supposed to).

Don't have a lot of time right now to think this through and give a better reply but I'd sure like to see a math guy go to town on this one. IMO disproving my claim that this apply's to an SNG is the same as disproving Darse's claim that it applys to a MTT. The principles are the same (huge pot odds, waiting for the money, you bust your dead etc).

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, in this situation, it really is unexploitable to push, because whatever they call with it's +$EV for the Hero, so if we are to argue that a push is wrong (and the only alternative is to fold, of course) then we have to come up with some kind of argument whereby folding will be more +$EV. If it was on the bubble, then perhaps, maybe, I could see some kind of argument for it as two stacks might get into a battle later on in the piece, and one might knock the other out giving us ITM by default - and doubling from 499 to just over 1k wouldn't help us a great lot anyway. The problem is, this is still 5 handed, and we are two people away from that situation.. so we need chips, very quickly, or else we're going to be out anyway. Solving this mathematically is pretty damn tough because the next hand we're going to be in the same boat - possibly even worse - than in this hand (and a large proportion of the time with a hand that isn't as strong as well), and then there's the BB which is in the lap of the gods as well. Unless they are very weak players who will fold to the BB because they don't want to "double the short stack up" (we've all seen tables like that I am sure), then it's imperative to make a move before the BB hits us. For that reason I'd move in now, simply because there are no guarantees for the next two hands, and realistically, the next hand is our best chance bar this one. Kx is good enough, and I'd push without much of a thought.