How Would You Play this PLH Hand?

No I didn't. My comment was that I couldn't see calling instead of jamming (as he did).

how can you say 77 is the dog when there are more cards that win for him than for his opponent?????

A-Ks can get help by any of the two following cards.


15 cards twice is about 54,1% chance of improvement.


You must go down a little because the sevens can get hit as well (4,5% for each card).

In that case A-Ks must hit the flush to win.

Thanks for all the responses. On the flop I felt pretty strongly

that I was a small favorite. I felt besides my flush cards that

an Ace and King would also be good. I really thought my opponents small reraise was more of a test bet than a real strong

conviction on his part about his hand. Even though I was the favorite I still would have preferred that my opponent fold when

I reraised because of all the dead money and there is no guarantee that I get there. Calling and waiting to see what the

turn brings is certainly a reasonable way to play the hand, but

what happens if a brick comes and you are faced with a pot sized

bet? You than almost have to fold because you are not getting the right price and reraising on the turn will not work because

the other player has the majority of his chips in the pot. I was

surprised that he called with such a weak hand. I certainly wondered if there was a visible tell on my part which induced him to call, even though his call was clearly incorrect.


Bruce

If he's willing to put all that money in the pot afterthe fall with 2 7's make room for him on the rail.

Given the board T94 with two hearts (it doesn't matter which 2 are hearts in this case), AhKh wins against the 7s7c 56.9% of the time. If the AhKh is against the 7h7d, it has a somehwat decreased chance to make a flush, but still wins 53.9% of the time. For those interested (or who want to find my errors [img]/images/wink.gif[/img]), how I arrived at these figures is included below.


So, even if the AhKh were exposed after bruce bet the pot on the flop, an opponent with 77 should want to see that the turn isn't a heart, A, or K before risking the rest of his stack -- bruce is pot commited on the flop against anything but a set (the AhKh only beats a set 24.7% of the time, but beats even top two pair 35% of the time).


Following is the calculation of wins for AhKh vs. 7s7c given the board Th 9h 4s:


There are 45 unknown cards: 45C2=990 ways to pick two of them


The ways to pick the next two cards for AhKh to win are:


any heart + any nonheart: 9*36 = 324

MINUS a 7H + a nonheart board pair: - 1*9 = -9

running hearts: 9C2 = 36

MINUS 7H + 4H: - 1*1 = -1

A/K + nonheart Q-8,6-2: 6*30 = 180

running A/K: 6C2 = 15

T + 9: 3*3 = 9

nonheart Q + nonheart J: 3*3 = 9


Total ways for AhKh to win: 324-9 +36-1 +180 +15 +9 +9 = 563


563/990 = 56.9% chance for AhKh to beat 7s7c


For the AhKh vs. 7h7d, the number of ways to make a flush changes:

any heart + any nonheart: 8*37 = 296

MINUS a 4H + a black 7: - 1*2 = -2

running hearts: 8C2 = 28

MINUS 7H + 4H: - 1*1 = -1


But everything else stays the same, yielding 296-2+28-1+180+15+9+9 = 534 ways for the AhKh to beat 7h7d, or a 53.9% chance to win.

I see a few other salient points in the

original post:


- you said that your opponent was loose; I would

have expect that past play would have given you

some clue that he might be hard to push off a pair

under these conditions. If so, a check on the

flop is a better play. (Notice that if you get

there with the flush, it's much harder for them to

put you on it after you checked the flop. Also, there

was another opponent; what were the chances that one

of these two might call your flop bet with a pair,

figuring that your possible hands were high cards

or an overpair, and that you were likely to bet

either way?


- Moving all in on the flop as you did can easily

be construed as a sign of weakness! I would expect

many players with an overpair in this situation to

actually be more likely to call than to move in.

I don't know your play style, but there are many

players for whom I'd respect the all-in bet less

than the call. Go figure.


- Just calling his raise might decrease your effective

odds, but it massively increases your deception. Given

your decision to commit, consider the following play:


1) just call his raise, with the intent to re-evaluate


on the turn


2) if he moves in on the turn, you have an easy lay


down assuming you don't get there


3) a possible turn play from him is a feeler bet,


maybe half the pot. Now your all-in bluff is


much more convincing; he'll reason that surely you're


expecting him to call (given the pot odds), so it's much


more difficult for him to believe you're bluffing.


My opinion is that you played the hand in a straight

forward manner, which obviously isn't a mistake but

which didn't maximize your chances of getting him

to fold. The fact that he called with an actual

shit hand instead of a mediocre one might also suggest

you had a tell.


- cheers

well maybe you play two big cards differently than a big pair so his guess may have been accurate. but any way, you raise before the flop an early limper in late position, so its more likely you have two big cards. so his check raise on the flop is a legit play because most times he will have the best hand and win it right there. then when you raise allin he now figures you have two big cards to a flush draw but the pot gives him the odds to play. and he hopes he isnt wrong and you have an over pair. this is how i play anyway.

If the 77 puts bruce on equal chances of big heart or AA-KK holdings, he should fold for the all in raise, shouldn't he? With 12 ways to be against the big pair, and only 3 ways to be a small underdog of the 6 ways bruce can have big hearts (he is a pretty big dog against QhJh KhJh or KhQh because of the straight draws, although I would presume these are less likely holdings than AhKh AhQh or AhJh for bruce to raise preflop with), it seems like his all-in call on the flop is suicide -- of 18 holdings, he is in deep deep trouble against 12, in too much trouble against 3, and only able to call as a small dog against the last 3 because of the money already in the pot.


Even if, for some reason, the 77 is 100% certain bruce has big hearts, isn't his best play to check call the flop, and bet pot on the turn if a blank comes? He has to know he isn't a favorite against these hands if the money goes in on the flop.


Tell me why I'm wrong, I'm just trying to get a clue about PL/NL. [img]/images/smile.gif[/img]

even though 77 has more cards that help him he has to hit "runner-runner" bricks. AhKh only needs one card out of 2 chances.