Poll: Simple Short Stack Satellite Problem

[Rick Nebiolo]

Gee, another forum I didn't even know existed [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

After just coming off a beat I have only T100 left in a one table no limit holdem satellite. There are T3000 chips in play and the blinds have just gone up to T50 and T100.

The UTG player with the largest stack folds. An average UTG+1 with another large stack raises enough to cover all the remaining players. I have QT offsuit with the aforementioned T100. The button is short stacked (about T300) and relatively tight. The small blind has T75 left and has already indicated he will be going all in for three additional chips before the hand starts (I believe him). The big blind has about T150 left after his post.



I'll post what I did and why below.

~ Rick

[MrFroggyX]

What is the payout? Is it only the winner that gets the satellite ticket?

And is your position UTG+2?

[Rick Nebiolo]

I called and I don't think it was a close decision.

The small blind will call with any two cards (since he has only three T25 chips left). The big blind holds random cards and I exactly cover his blind. I don't like the raise on my right (in fact, I'd rather have this person fold), but the fact this player is in the pot gives me at least 3 to 1 on my money. I get 4 to 1 if the button calls or raises.

Queen-ten offsuit isn't a great hand but it doesn't play too badly all in against one probably stronger hand and two random hands. I have only two chances at a better hand before I have to take the blind all in. In my next two hands I won't get the automatic call in the small blind.

Hero, sweating me from a safe distance, thought I should have ditched the hand. This led to a heated arguement, but we both agreed the forum would be the place to settle it.

We await the forum's vote and comments. A month's worth of who must pay for cocktails depends on your vote [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

~ Rick

[Rick Nebiolo]

It was a $70 satellite for six $100 Commerce Tournament lammers (is that the right term) and $30 extra. You can make deals but usually this occurs head up. I was UTG+2, or in the cutoff since we were now six handed.

Given you asked, I might edit my post and add this.

~ Rick

[M.B.E.]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In Antwort auf:</font><hr />
Hero, sweating me from a safe distance, thought I should have ditched the hand. This led to a heated arguement, but we both agreed the forum would be the place to settle it.

[/ QUOTE ]
Rick, I agree with Hero on this one (I couldn't vote in the poll, however; some kind of cookie problem).

In a recent essay on his web site, Steve Badger addresses a problem almost identical to the one you've posed here.

To paraphrase him, the fact that the blinds are likely (or certain, in the case of the SB) to call is a reason you should fold, not a reason you should call. True, you are likely getting 3-to-1 on your T100. But your hand will have to beat three others to win the pot! Maybe on the next hand you'll get a situation where the blinds are less likely to call, so you'd be getting 2.5-to-1 on your T100, but to win it you'll only have to beat one player.

Did you win the hand and go on to win the satellite?

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Close decision, but I think I'd call. The BB is likely to call meaning that there's a chance 2 players go out on this hand. However, since you can't raise you have no way of winning a hand uncontested. This is probably your best opportunity to get enough chips to even have a chance at winning.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Here's what Badeger says:

The general situation you want is to go all-in after one single opponent raises in front of you.

I agree, but the problem is simple. There's no guarantee this is going to happen. In fact, in the situation Rick poses, each succeeding hand *decreases* the chance that that will happen. He has one person to act ahead of him in the next hand, and he acts first the hand after that, and on the third hand, he's forced to play what he gets.

Badger's advice makes sense if you've got 4 or 5 hands before your BB *and* there's an aggressive big stack one or two seats to your right who's preying on the table's fears.

Badger's point is well-taken, but this specific situation is an exception.

[CrisBrown]

Hi Rick,

My first thought was that you should fold and push on one of the next two hands. The SB may well be going out here, which is one less potentially better hand to dodge.

Then I thought what I wrote in my original post: if the SB goes out, that puts you UTG on the next hand because the button will skip over to the BB. I would push in UTG rather than wait to be forced in on the blind, because some players will fold a marginal hand rather than having to see all five cards for a shot at only 2.5xBB.

Then I thought: wait a minute, that would mean the BB didn't pay a SB, and that's not the way they handle it. If the SB busts out, the button stays where it is, so you're still UTG+1. That gives you two hands to decide whether to push in, and I think one of the two might give you a better shot than QT in a community pot.

Cris

[The Prince]

Rick,

I agree with your play. The key here is:

- you gain nothing by moving up the scale
- you can't fold and make a blind muck a hand if you go all-in in the next hands.

Against 3 opponents, 2 of which have random hand and over all the possible hands the raiser could have, your QT has a positive equity.

Should you win this pot, you will be able to pressure the blinds.

[Al_Capone_Junior]

I think your reasoning is fine. Take your chance to quadruple up now. I did vote for it being close tho, as the raiser may have you dominated.

al