Noam Chomsky Flips Heads 100x in a Row

[Kellon]

I hope you won't consider this too out of place, but I'm trying to recall a book my son had a few years ago by Noam Chomsky, in which he (Chomsky) laid out a "proof" for flipping a heads 100 times in a row. I may be totally mis-recalling the whole thing. It seems like it was in a lengthy footnote or something. I asked my son, but he couldn't remember the title, since it was one of those "for class" things that get forgotten as soon as the assignment is completed. There was something about it that bugged me then and still bugs me every once in a while now. I must have looked at a couple hundred web pages over the past month trying to find a hint of it, to no avail.

Any of you probability experts read Chomsky?

[gaming_mouse]

Kellon,

I've read some Chomsky, but I don't recall reading this.

What do you mean by a "proof" of flipping a coin 100 times in row? I can't even imagine what that could mean. The odds of that happening, of course, are (.5)^100, and astronomically small number.

gm

[rybones]

I actually learned this trick because of reading something about this when I was in school and it always stuck with me. Anyway I do not know if what I read was Chomsky or not, but what I read had to do with analyzing true randomness. The deal is that you can learn to flip a coin so that it lands on whichever side you wish it to land. The principal is the same a juggling bowling pins. You need to toss them in the air with precission so that you always catch the narrow end. Alas, this stuck with me I decided to play with it in my college days. Since then, if I flip a quarter in the air and let it land in my hand I can make it land heads up 80 out of 100 times or so. It is a pretty cool bar trick and has won me more than a fair amount of money.

I don't know if this is what you meant or not, but I hope it was intersting.

Ryan

[gaming_mouse]

Ryan,

This is a cool trick. Hard to believe, actually. I mean, how many rotations does you quarter do. I know that when I flip a coin it's spinning so fast that there is just no way anyone could count the number of flips or anything and control how it landed. Do you flip it more slowly? Even so, still cool.

gm

[rybones]

I have never been able to count as you are right it flips too fast. However take a quarter out -- or better still for learning I big ol silver dollar -- and start by trying to just flip it twice. It is actually really hard for the first 2 or 3 days/6 gazillion times. I found beer really helpful in the beginning (ah college). Soon you will find that you just have a feel for the coin and you will be flipping more revolutions than you can count. However, you will also have this sense of: "ok too fast that time, slow it a bit."

Good luck,

Ryan

[quix0tic]

I read chomsky's politics and hugely respect him. The example you allude to may be from some of his linguistic work with which I am less familiar. I do remember some example where he suggested taking a stadium full of people and letting them each stand and flip coins, sitting down when they got tails. At the end of even 11 or 12 flips, you will still have people standing up (2^12= about one person in 4k). Point seemed to be that events which can be seen as highly improbable individually are in fact very likely. Don't know if that is what you were looking for but just throwing it out there.

[ZeeBee]

Trying to get a coin to land on the right side repetitively is very, very difficult.

But doing it by the usual coin-flip method of catching it and slapping it onto the back of your hand is actually fairly easy.

With a little practice you can learn to tell one side of most coins from the other by rubbing your thumb over it as you turn you hand to slap it on the back of your other hand. All you have to do then is get the coin to turn over as you slap it down if it's facing the wrong way - pretty easy too.

A few minutes practice and you should have it.

ZB

[magiluke]

It's not hard to believe, actually. There is no such thing as a random coin flip. There have been machines built that will flip a coin the same exact way every time. The thing that makes it "random" in human imperfection. We do it slightly differently every time. If you can temper the way you do it into something with little varience, you can flip it the way you want it (although not perfectly).

[slickpoppa]

I remember reading a story on an internet site a couple of years ago about Ken Uston (famous BJ card counter) losing a lot of money betting against some guy with similar coinflipping abilities. I think the guy offered 2:1 odds and let Uston call the coin in the air. I guess he was somehow able to time his catch to get whatever side he wanted to come up.

[dtbog]

[ QUOTE ]
I can make it land heads up 80 out of 100 times or so.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does this mean you can make your AK beat 22 80% of the time too?

Now THAT's a useful bar trick.

-DB