Quads 9 times this month!

adamstewart · #1 10-20-2004, 06:11 PM

Since October 1st I've played 9,980 hands so far at Party. (Half at $3/$6 and half at $5/$10 6m).

Anyway, I've had quads a NINE (9) times in that span! (Most of which have come recently in the last 5000 hands since I moved up to $5/$10 6m).

Can anyone tell me the odds of this? It seems astronomically improbable....

Thanks,

Adam
P.S. I'm not complaining [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

adamstewart · #2 10-20-2004, 07:20 PM

Just got another quad...

10th one in under 10,000 hands...

AS IF!

adamstewart · #3 10-20-2004, 07:59 PM

Oh, I forgot to mention that most (if not all) of these quads have occurred with pocket pairs (i.e. NOT with the board showing a trips and me having the fourth card).

I don't know if this matters either, but I just chopped a pot with another guy when the board was 5,5,5,A,5. So, that's like ELEVEN quads in 10,164 hands.

WTF? Is this something to do with 6 max games? There seems to be an awful lot of boats lately too.

Adam

DrGutshot · #4 10-20-2004, 08:08 PM

No.

jimymat · #5 10-20-2004, 10:22 PM

Hmmm

adamstewart · #6 10-20-2004, 10:48 PM

whadya mean "hmmmm"?

EDIT: Never mind I just read some of your other posts. You think online poker is rigged. Even in the midst of this "quad-fest," I can't agree with you. For one, I haven't seen any other quads besides my own during this span - or they specifically rigging just for me? I doubt it.

pzhon · #7 10-21-2004, 01:04 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Since October 1st I've played 9,980 hands so far at Party. (Half at $3/$6 and half at $5/$10 6m).

Anyway, I've had quads a NINE (9) times in that span!

[/ QUOTE ]
You counted a case of quads on the board, so I assume you accept the case of trips on the board. In that case, the probability of getting quad aces if you stay to the river is (48 choose 3)/(52 choose 7) = 1/7735 since there are (48 choose 3) ways to choose the non-aces among the seven cards. The probability that you get quads of some rank is 13/7735 = 1/595. So, in 10k hands, you should expect to see quads 16.8 times, assuming you never fold before the river. (The calculation is the same as for 7-card stud, so you can also check references on 7-card stud odds.)

That you have only gotten quads 10 times proves online poker is rigged. All winnings must be redeposited by the end of the month so they can be returned to the fish.