when the flush draw gets there...

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd need a read that he's a terrible player then, for me to be willing to make a call that would cripple me. Because even a bad player *usually* has the flush here (I think we can at least agree on that?). Also, I still might fold because a player this bad will give me his chips later anytime I'm in a pot with him -- and I won't have to be hoping he doesn't have the flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

I replied with this above:



Much of the time. I see villain's line being Ah x, maybe he called the flop bet because he hit his kicker on flop, raised the turn incase a 4th heart came on river, and hit 2 pair on river so value bet it.

Ah 9x? This is a 20? I just dont see how people play cards seeing monsters all of the time. If I played every hand at the lower limits worrying everytime there are 3 flush cards on board, I woul;d make a lot less $...sometimes I am wrong, I just dont see how this case is special. The flop call? I think hero is ahead more than 50% of the time on this river.

[gumpzilla]

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This seems like the only logical possible hand he could have here that you beat. But I still think he raises the flop with top pair (at least if he's going to raise the turn).

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll pretty frequently play TPTK on this board pretty much the same way as the villain played his hand, though I'd probably raise a little more on the turn.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]

I'll pretty frequently play TPTK on this board pretty much the same way as the villain played his hand, though I'd probably raise a little more on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

ESPECIALLY if you have the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

[Matt R.]

[ QUOTE ]

- how surprised would i be if he had a flush? not surprised at all.

- how surprised would i be if i won this hand by calling? pretty surprised.

that last bit is obviously not an argument - just wanted to explain the thought process.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it actually is an argument -- and a good one. You're just estimating (correctly, IMO), the probability that he has the flush vs. some other hand that you beat.

I'm surprised you're convinced pushing the turn is correct. After villain's line, you think it's likely he has the flush -- correct (I assume this is true after what you said)? Then why put all your chips in when you're drawing to 10 outs, when you can get a cheap river to try and fill up? I, personally, like the way you played the hand.

[adios]

When you bet on the turn what did you think he'd raise you with? If you held out the strong possibility that he made a flush on the turn you should have checked. If you weren't sure I think it's a fair to say that your bet was informational in that his raise against a 3 flush should tell you something. If you thought there was a good chance he'd bluff at it, check and call. He's offering you around 3-1 on the river and I'm fairly sure that you're beat here but it's a judgement call as to how often. I realize you don't know a thing about this player most likely and I have to think that from the way you played the hand you should fold on the river. I don't think your opponent will take a free card with a lot of outs very often on the turn i.e. the money is going in whether you check or not. If a four flush comes on the river and you're bluffed out so what? The pot is small and it's early.

[junkmail3]

I didn't know this was a 22. (I didn't know what level it was), but espically at a 22, even up to a 55 I would push the turn. You're ahead way too often. And the games I've been seeing lately ... I just can't let this go, which is what makes pushing the turn the best option.

And if I bust ... ? Well then, I'll have to wait until next week to get that beaded seat cover I've been saving for.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a 20

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sorry i forgot to include this earlier. i'm surprised no one asked.

it's a 33.

i think it matter a lot because i'd imagine AJ and KJ limp utg much more at the 11 than the 33.

[Matt R.]

OK, but wouldn't you play 2 hearts the same way? If not, I'm sure you'll agree most players would -- and I think slowplaying AJ on the flop in this situation is a mistake. But if you assume villain would play AJ the exact same way as the flush draw, it's still more likely he has the flush. On this final board, there are 2*C(3,1) or 9 ways to have AJ (not to mention only 3 ways of having AhJ, which we think is more likely). If UTG limps with Ax of hearts, any 2 suited connectors down to 78h, that's 12+6 = 18 ways of making these hands. It's twice as likely he has the flush. He's BARELY getting the odds to call in that case, and in this ideal scenario, since a call cripples him, I'd still fold.

Edit -- I didn't discount some of the 2 heart hands based on known cards out, so my counts are a little off, but you get the idea (it's still more likely he has the flush). AND -- I miscalculated pot odds in my last sentence, oops. But the flush is still more likely, even though the pot odds are more favorable than what I thought originally (blah! I'm done correcting myself).

[mhcmarty]

Has the size of the flop bet been discussed? With 2 suited cards and a flopped set, my bet would have been atleast 1.5X the pot. Specially this early.

On the turn, I'd fold or re-raise.

[schwza]

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On the turn, I'd fold or

[/ QUOTE ]

yuck. i'm getting exactly 3.5:1 on my 3.6:1 shot to fill up. even if i never win without hitting and never make a dime when i do hit, i *barely* don't have odds ot call.