KK facing huge overbet (Party 11)

[lastchance]

A massive overbet doesn't mean AA. From some people it does, but until you see the guy do this at least once, you have no idea what he's got.

I've seen this bet made with all sorts of crap. It is very likely someone has KQ or KJ here, for example, maybe worse, and for you to be a 9 to 1 favorite or more. It is just as likely that you will AQ as compared to AA here.

People suck at poker. Call, and be stunned by the kinds of crap they make this play with.

If you folded, this is a horrible, horrible, horrible play. Don't do it again.

[liucipher]

[ QUOTE ]
If any sensible player had AA in first position, would he go all in to take down a pot of 75? No.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ditto.

Last round he bet 5xBB w/ AKs. Just because he raised to 30xBB here doesn't mean his hand has gotten 6 times stronger (which I think would have to be like AA and two more hidden in his butthole with a fifth one up the sleeve for good measure).

[ QUOTE ]
I find your post to be somewhat contradictory, then, since you say "what does it matter how big a favorite you are?"

[/ QUOTE ]
What Gator meant was that it's an $11, so not only is the competition soft, but it also means winning play that leads to higher variance will not cause you to have to take out a second mortgage. Maybe 5% of the time Villain has AA and you lose $11. But whatever, it's not the WSOP.

My guess is that Villain has AK (if he's tight), AQ (if he's drinking while playing), QQ, or JJ. It reeks of "I most likely have the best hand but I'm sick of getting sucked out on." It also could be "I'm getting high on a Saturday night with my roommate and I just let him play a hand. Stupid Kumar let's go get some White Castle!"

[valenzuela]

Ok Ill explain to you...
Look you can bet 20x the BB and idiots still call with 99 or AQ. Try it the next time. But like I said the most likely range is JJ+, AK a looser range something like 99+,AQ+, ur range should be IMO QQ+( for huge overbets, I dont like AK however u might overbet AK as well).

[chumdawg]

I apologize. I guess I wasn't making clear the source of my confusion. Yes, I understand that a massive overbet doesn't necessarily mean aces. (In my experience, in some games, and with some players, it's more likely to mean jacks or a lower pocket pair.) And yes, I understand that some people will do this with KQ or KJ.

But this guy had demonstrated to me clearly enough that he wasn't this type of player. Played one hand in three orbits, which was AK-suited, and brought it in for a standard raise. He required a different sort of read...or so I thought.

If it's a cash game, I call him without hesitation. (Then again, people don't raise 20 times the pot in the cash games I play in, so maybe I don't.) But being that this is a tournament, I was thinking along these lines:

How much will I win if I make this call and hold up?
How much will I lose if I make this call and don't?

Is this not the right question to be asking (while at the same time, of course, trying to determine how often you win and how often you lose)?

[runner4life7]

First, please tell me you called, and what did he have? A lot of people push mid pocket pairs because they dont know how to play them i.e. 7s-Js especially 10s and Js. I think the mentality is that they have a good hand and want to win chips and would rather take the small amount and win for sure.

[Scorpion Man]

The guy is tight. That does not mean he's an idiot. While once in a while people use reverse reverse psychology like this, its not worth worrying about. Be happy, click call, and move on. This is a great situation. I would beg for this situation all day. Call it 100 times and you will be right 90 of them. There is no way to know whether this is in the other 10.

To me the fact he is super tight and has raised a lot screams weakness, not stregth (99 TT JJ maybe QQ). Unless the aforementioned White Castle is in play.

[45suited]

I reach so quickly for my mouse to call here that I pull a muscle. Like Harrington said in his book, even the top pros don't ever "know" that their opponent has aces. The vast majority of the time you will have this guy dominated, AND don't forget that of the few times that he has aces, you still might get lucky. IMO folding here is horrible. Don't overthink this... just call and double up.

[Freudian]

Call. At worst you get an $11 note on the guy.