unusual bad beat. Thought it was interesting

[nokona13]

I disagree that this needs to be raised more pre-flop. Clearly JTo is making a mistake calling your raise to 70. Raising to 100 or whatever just discourages this kind of mistake. Raising to 70 is enough that you'll rarely get more than 2 callers, and often just 1. I agree with the EP raise to 70 with aces on level 1.

I agree, however, that a raise to 150-175 here is better than the overbet. Would you ever bet 300 with the flush, or even if you had the ace of spades? If so, I think the way to make your play consistent is to raise to 150-175 with the flush too, rather than to 300 with the overpair.

[nokona13]

You're being super defensive about a hand you played badly. I think everyone who's proffered a real opinion (so not including raptor's semi-serious check/fold advice), has said a 2/3-3/4 bet on the flop, laid down to a push, is a much better line. You're saying this guy's such a donk, and you made the call based on the assumption that he was a donk or a LAG who pushed a monotone board overbet without being able to beat AA. If he's a donk or a LAG, however, he could have AsXs, KsXs, with X > 8 or so, he could have QsJs, Js9s, or he could have any 89s or a set and not believe you have the flush. If you're going to make a call based on the assumption the guy's a donk, you have to include all the donk hands in his possible range. If you include all those hands, this is a very bad play. Maybe once you overbet and were getting almost 3:1 on the call, then you've gotta call if you think it's 25% he's got the ten paired and that's it, but that's pretty questionable too. Just because it turned out hte guy was a moron doesn't make your play less atrocious.

[rickr]

I had no intention of being super defensive about the play. I only really got defensive at the idea that I played this like this simply because of emotion, which is not true. My thought process may be off, but it was there. I simply found it interesting that I would get called by such a bad hand, and thought someone else might. My big mistake was my title, which took the heat.
I tend to agree that for a consistant betting pattern, all things considered, a standard 1/2 to 3/4 pot bet would have been a better play. Still not a hundred percent sure of laying it down to the push from that particular player, meaning position. Just think alot of the time you are ahead here. Just don't know which is more correct.

Didn't mean to piss in anybodies wheaties.

Later,
Rick

[raptor517]

if you are going to bet 300 at this flop, you are right, you are pot committed, and cant fold to a raise. that is why you DONT bet 300. on this flop, you dont want to get pot committed. period. its not worth it. everything and their mother beats you here. you are clouded right now by the fact that you got it in ahead against 5 outs and lost. that will happen oh, maybe 3.276% of the time. if you DO decide to bet this flop (which i really dont like).. shove or bet 150ish. NOT 300. if they push, u can fold. if they call, you can shove the turn if no spade falls. easy enough. holla

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
If I had not bet, you guys would have flamed

[/ QUOTE ]

i would have commended your amazing ability to play poker

hands that beat you.. here goes.. EVERYTHING EXCEPT top pair no kicker with no flush draw. EVERY OTHER HAND you are a coinflip AT BEST. set, 2 pair, pair and flush draw(14 outs). so you see, its not worth taking the risk in this spot. too many ppl fall in love with their aces, or bet WAY too much to protect them. this is just wrong.

[ QUOTE ]
These are the only hands that are ahead of me at this point. All others are drawing.

[/ QUOTE ]

i hope you realize, that even if a hand is 'drawing', as you say, it can still be ahead. have u ever played omaha? you can be a 70/30 fave to win the ahnd, but be behind at the time. very easily. dont try to justify this by saying: 'but i had aces, they were PROBABLY ahead'. probably doesnt do crap for you here.

ok, off to find another response to comment on. holla

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
win it when you are ahead

[/ QUOTE ]

well, pushing will ensure that you win it when you are ahead, but i really hate that line.

[ QUOTE ]
not get bluffed of it.

[/ QUOTE ]

if you get bluffed off of it, it is by a hand that is pretty close to even with you. not exactly a pure bluff.

[ QUOTE ]
Or do you simply dump your aces to a scary flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

no, i just know when i find myself in a -ev situation, and dont get involved. sometimes, even if you are 'ahead' as you say, its not worth playing. reference my AJ bubble thread a while back, and you will have a better idea of what i mean. holla

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
Not one person has argued my read here, or explained where my thoughts were wrong.
I have had people tell me I overbet the pot. That is a valid point of argument, and I will definitely concede that I may have been wrong on this. Fine.
But I am telling you, you are wrong that it was just that I could not lay down aces. This was not the case. Have I ever been guilty of not being able to lay them down. Guilty as charged. But not here. I actually thought this one out before I made the play. Was actually quite proud of myself for doing it. I felt it was a damn good call in a tough spot. If he had flipped over AKs I would have said "Well son of a ***" boy you read that one wrong. And fired up another game. You would put villian on AK spades. Wow your good.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok, ill try to be as nice as possible.

i take more negative issue with this post than anything you have made thus far. you are simply clouding your mind with the thought that you were actually ahead here. i can almost guarantee that if he turned over AK of spades, you WOULD NOT have made this thread. period. you would have been like, 'oh well, i suck, next sng.' however, you were actually ahead, the 3.247% of the time you actually WILL be a dominating favorite in the hand. clearly you are both donks in this instance, for getting all of your chips in with VERY marginal holdings. aces are not the best hand in the game post flop. a lot of people have trouble recognizing that.

you say that you made a 'damn good call in a tough spot.' what you really did was make a damn awful play in an easy spot. again, you are tricking yourself into thinking you made the right play because of what the villian flipped over. poker has a way of doing that. you can THINK that you are playing great, making great reads, etc, when you are really just playing awful and are on a turbo heater. it will end. holla

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
hen you drop 20+ buyins IN A ROW, then you are allowed to make a bad beat post. holla



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I've just lost over 20 buyins. I'm not posting bad beats (unless I can Hijack someone else's bad beat post).

That being said, my cat treads the office area very carefully (think punting).

[/ QUOTE ]

oh, for the record scuba, im not talking about losing 20 buyins. thats a 5x a week occurance for me. im talking about losing them back to back to back without a single itm thrown in there for sanity reasons. yea, good thing i dont have a cat. holla

[rickr]

[ QUOTE ]
ok, ill try to be as nice as possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Must say you did a damn fine job of it too. Get some rest from this morning? lol

OK, the concensus seems to be to bet 150 or so. From your posts it seems you disagree with this. Are you advocating a check fold here?

Only other question I have is, where did you get your 3.47% number from? My guess or ass estimate was much more often ahead than this.
I had to get my rear reamed from you guys for this hand, but at least I got a decent discussion and advise by the end. I guess it's the price you pay, lol.

Thanks,
Rick

[raptor517]

the 3.742 number is something my brilliant mind created.

i dont necessarily disagree with betting 150 here, though i think it might be leaking chips. dont get me wrong, im not going to flame anyone for betting 150 in this spot, and folding to a push. however, not many people are able to do that. after they put in that 150, they feel obligated to slide in the rest of their stacks. this is not good. that is why, for the more casual player, simply check folding is the more +ev way to play this hand. for a BETTER player, that can get away from his aces post flop on an awful one like this, betting 150ish could be the best way to go. holla