too tight early in STT?

[AleoMagus]

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...is this line actually +EV over check/folding? And if it is with this many limpers, how many more limpers must there be before the balance swings the other way?

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I think it must be. You can't check/fold a hand like this all the way. What if you check and everyone checks behind? Do you lead out on the turn? What if the three flush comes on the turn?

If you actually are beat, it's got to be a big hand (Two pair, set, or slowplayed AK) so I'd rather make the bet on the flop and get some info after that. If you really are beat already, you could easily get a raise and it's not hard to get away from.

I also think that it's important to bet it while it is still best. The last thing I want is Mr J4o to spike a second J or a 4 on the turn (not to mention the real draws).

That's my opinion anyways

Regards
Brad S

PS - What's a little annoying and interesting about this situation is the thought that people really might check/call AQ on this flop. I bet 2nd pair here in last position if everyone checks this flop to me. If it isn't raised preflop, and they all check that ace, I can easily see 2nd pair as good. I like the thought that I could be pushing a check/folding AQ off this pot, but I hate the idea that AQ might check/call this. This is not to say check/calling here is correct, but I think aggressive players in last position could be sad to see it nonetheless.

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]

On the other hand...is this line actually +EV over check/folding? And if it is with this many limpers, how many more limpers must there be before the balance swings the other way?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok well this is a cross post from the one I made in the prob forum, and not the exact same situation, but about as good a flop as you can ask for with AQ/AK. Clearly any two-flush/connected/paired flops makes things worse. I'm still working through this so any help people would like to offer would be great.

***************

NLHE - You have AK in the BB, x limpers to you and you check. Flop comes A-9-4, no two flush. What % of the time do you have the best hand here given x.

Assume players are limping with:

QJ 16
KJ 12
KT 12
A2 8
A3 8
A4 6
A5 8
A6 8
A7 8
A8 8
A9 6
AT 8
22 6
33 6
44 3
55 6
66 6
77 6
88 6
99 3
TT 6
23s 4
34s 3
45s 3
56s 4
67s 4
78s 4
89s 3
9Ts 3
TJs 4
Total 188

You are beat by A4, A9, 44, 99, or 18 hands. Therefore, the probablility you are beat on this flop depending on x are:
x | prob
1 0.0957
2 0.1828
3 0.2619
4 0.3337
5 0.3989
6 0.4580
7 0.5116
8 0.5602
9 0.6042

Look ok?