What should I defend with?

[The Stick]

Late in a Bodog 33, it's 4-handed.

Blinds are 150/300

UTG: Short1 (1100)
Button: Villain (3100)
SB: Short2 (1200 -150 = 1050)
BB: Hero (4600 -300 = 4300)

UTG folds. Button moves all in. SB folds.
Hero sees 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], and folds.

Hero says "I'd call you out of principle if I didn't have 72o."

No one's busted in the next 4 hands and some chips slide around the table. Villain is frequently all-in, and has been since 6-handed began. His range appears to be any A, any K, Q9+, J9+, T9+, any PP.

Now, it's come around again, and it's still 150/300, but will become 200/400 after this hand, and the stacks are approx.:

UTG: Short1 (800)
Button: Villain (3900)
SB: Short2 (800 -150 = 650)
BB: Hero (4500 -300 = 4200)

UTG folds. Villain moves all-in. SB folds. Hero...?

What range of hands should I call with here? Should I call with a 'possibly a little ahead or could be dominated' A5o? K9? 'Two suited, live, connected cards' like 56s? 'Bigger suited but maybe not live' TJs? Or must I wait for the bubble to burst unless I have AA, KK, QQ, or AK?

My gut tells me my calling range here is pretty broad, because of the added chance of easily winning 1st if I take him out now. Compared to if I fold, and am now 2nd in chips and would have to pick up a hand quickly to stay even with him.

My instinct says my range is AK-AT, KQ-T, and maybe QJ as far as "two high cards" goes, fades away around JT-T9, and then picks up again with "two live cards" around 45-78, suited middle 1-gappers, and other random rags that make me a 60-40 dog. I don't like A9- or K9- because of the domination factor, I can't put him specifically on QJ or JT. I figure he must have something in his "range" if he's willing to risk it all pre-flop, but, he could be an "any two" kind of guy who just hasn't had to show down rags yet.

[tigerite]

Why is it so important to stay even with him. What difference does it make. You're pretty much nailed on to get heads up with him. Push first when you get to act first. Don't spite call and botch up your entire tournament, that's dumb.

[lastchance]

Wow, you're insanely loose here. With two shorties, you have to be a signifigant favorite if you don't have him outchipped by a lot, and you don't. AA-99, AK-AQ at the most here, less if he's not pushing a very wide range of hands (which that isn't).

[Bigwig]

You need an exceptionally good hand here. I think what you need to do (rather than have this question answered) is learn how to play SNG's on the bubble. The fact that you're asking this question in this manner tells me you're missing a lot of key concepts.

[snowgurts]

But weigh his options and outcomes:
(1) Calls (a) Loses, and battles it out with other two to go heads up with big chip stack; (b) Wins, and is surely the winner of the whole tournament.
(2) Folds (a) makes a good fold, he's in second and still has to continually fold while the Villian goes all-in nearly every hand; (b) makes a bad fold, and forfeits his easy ride to be the winner.

I still think I'd be VERY selective as to what I'd call him with, but I don't know that it's that black-and-white of a situation.

[The Stick]

Maybe I'm just crazy.

The problem for me against this guy is, I can't be too "selective" because if he's got QJs and I've got AKo, he's going to suck out on me 40% of the time and I'll be crippled anyway. With his range, if I can only call w AA, KK, QQ, I'm pretty screwed.

In the actual game, I folded. Next time I had a hand to open with, I pushed... and one of the shortstacks doubled up off me. The other bubbled out, and after the burst the Villain just raised all in every time he opened the pot. Soon I was even with the other shortstack against the Villain, 6000 for him, 2000 each for us, with blinds at 300/600, then 400/800.

I did the rough math in my head for the different situations afterward... and wasn't sure, so I thought I'd ask for feedback.

If I call with what I figure are two live suited cards, and with the loose range of hands that could be best:

~40% of the time I win, I practically guarantee a 1st place finish of $150.

~60% of the time I lose, I know I probably will money anyway... the blinds go up to 200/400 next hand and will consume at least one of the shortstacks with the Villain pushing every hand. 1/3rd of the time, I finish 3rd ($60). Another 1/3rd, I come in 2nd ($90). Another 1/3rd, I get heads up against him and get lucky at the right times and win ($150).

So 40% of the time, I win 150, 20% I win 90, 20% I win 60, and another 20% I backdoor to 150.

150x.4+90x.2+60x.2+150x.2= 60+18+12+30= $120 I expect to win.

If I fold, I'm still in the battle for 1st or 2nd, but will have to win the next time I call all-in against the villain. Half the time I've got the best hand ($150), half the time he does ($90). I expect $120 from this situation as well.

If I have to be "selective", what's the range? Soley AA, KK, and QQ?

I figure AK-AT are good here because he's playing any A, so more than half the time he has an A I've got him dominated, and when he doesn't have an A I've got the best hand, or a coinflip. KQ-KT will provide me the same coverage agaisnt Kx, plus the times he has A9-A2 I'll have two cards in the middle, making only his A live. Suited connectors lower than 9 mean they're both live given the range of cards I've seen from him.

After the bubble bursts and he's the leader, it's all-in every hand from him. So it's take a stand now or later, and not much choice about the cards I can do it with either time.

Luckily the hyper-aggressives aren't encountered that often. His game probably put me on tilt. He would open all-in about 75% of the time he could act first once it got 6-handed, and with position on me I know I was folding better hands than he was playing, but I still couldn't call as such an early leader, trying to make sure I didn't lose my chips and drop down to average--and risk not making the money period.

[bigt439]

Are the people that replied seriously reading the same post? I'd call with aces, wince a bit if I called with KK, and seriously consider dumping QQ, but I think its close. The thinking I've seen in this thread is so flawed I don't even know where to begin. Stick around and read the forum, because you have a LOT to learn (I'm honestly not trying to be a dick, but I'm posting this so you realize that you have to work on your game). Think about how short the other two guys are, how the payout structure works, and what your chance of winning against a random hand (if that's what you put this guy on). Do a little math and come back to this. In response to lastchance, if I misclick called with 99 I would throw up.

[The Stick]

Guess I'm wrong, I can accept that.

So the corrollary is, if the chip leader has to fold anything but AA and KK, as the 2nd place stack, once it's 4-handed, I should go all in every hand that's got two cards 9 or bigger? Leader will only call once every 50 hands, and even if I end up in a 33-66 situation with a shortstack that's got 1/3 my chips, I'm still in 2nd place if I lose. The Villain's strategy seems pretty solid, then, and once he takes over the chip lead in this hand, there's no reason for him to stop.

[bigt439]

[ QUOTE ]
Guess I'm wrong, I can accept that.

So the corrollary is, if the chip leader has to fold anything but AA and KK, as the 2nd place stack, once it's 4-handed, I should go all in every hand that's got two cards 9 or bigger? Leader will only call once every 50 hands, and even if I end up in a 33-66 situation with a shortstack that's got 1/3 my chips, I'm still in 2nd place if I lose. The Villain's strategy seems pretty solid, then, and once he takes over the chip lead in this hand, there's no reason for him to stop.

[/ QUOTE ]

You actually shouldn't be doing the pushing unless you know you're playing someone who would only call with KK or AA. Them calling takes away alot of your EV, but it also takes away alot of their EV too. All the extra EV goes to the two short stacks who are moving up in the money.