#1
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davidross\' results.
Anything we could assume for his next 6 months? Could we safely assume he'll be making that amount within a +/- range of how much?
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#2
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Re: davidross\' results.
Do we know his hourly win rate and standard deviation? If so, this can be solved quite easily.
As an example, let's assume his win rate is $30/hr, his standard deviation is $300/hr, and and he plays 45 hrs/wk. In the next 6 months, he'll play 1170 hrs (45*26). His EV is $35,100 (30*1170) and his SD is $10261.58 (300*sqrt(1170)) With this information we can figure out various things, such as the probability of losing money, making $40,000 or more, etc. 1) Probability of losing money: 35,100 + 10,261*SD = 0 SD = -3.42 It would take a -3.42 SD event or worse for David to lose money in the next six months. The probability of this happening is .031%, which is about 3/10,000. To solve for this I used Excel (=-normsdist(-3.42)). 2) Probability of making $40,000 of more: 35100 + 10261*SD = 40000 SD = .477 Probability of making $40,000 or more = 31.6% (=1-normsdist(.477)) -- Homer |
#3
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Re: davidross\' results.
Thanks. Interesting stuff. One last one.
Probability he makes the same again within $10k either way? Thank you in advanced. |
#4
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Re: davidross\' results.
Probability he makes the same again within $10k either way?
Just to refresh: EV = $35,100 SD = $10,261 You want to know the probability that he makes between $25,100 and $45,100. 1) Probability of making less than $45,100: 35,100 + 10,261*SD = 45,100 SD <= .975 2) Probability of making more than $25,100: 35,100 + 10,261*SD = 25,100 SD >= -.975 3) Probability of making between $25,100 and $45,100: Essentially, we want to know the probability that his SD is between -.975 and .975. P = 1 - 2*normsdist(-.975) = 67% -- Homer |
#5
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Re: davidross\' results.
Thanks again. Hoped that percentage would be higher. The EV should increase over the next 6 months with the increase interested in poker though, so we have that hope.
Infact thinking about that, those results he has were based in a time we had the WSOP boost. So it would have to be a larger boost than that, or we could expect less EV. But of course, all our games are ever improving. Thanks again for the maths. |
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