+EV Push???

Deuce2High · #1 03-21-2005, 06:23 PM

***** Hand History for Game 1770630109 *****
NL Hold'em $10 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:10587791 Level:5 Blinds(100/200) - Monday, March 21, 17:19:50 EDT 2005
Table Table 35941 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 1: lloydbanks22 ( $1420 )
Seat 5: Dentalman ( $1290 )
Seat 8: cboots ( $2250 )
Seat 9: Jvales ( $1700 )
Seat 10: Pwnasaurus ( $1340 )
Trny:10587791 Level:5
Blinds(100/200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Pwnasaurus [ 4s 4d ]
Pwnasaurus is all-In [1340]

Only thing I can say about this table is that I haven't made any big moves in a while. Probably not during the whole 100-200 level. This was probably my first push of the tournament if I remember right.

kdotsky · #2 03-21-2005, 06:32 PM

5 players, 6BB... I think I'd push too.

HC5831 · #3 03-21-2005, 06:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
***** Hand History for Game 1770630109 *****
NL Hold'em $10 Buy-in + $1 Entry Fee Trny:10587791 Level:5 Blinds(100/200) - Monday, March 21, 17:19:50 EDT 2005
Table Table 35941 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 1: lloydbanks22 ( $1420 )
Seat 5: Dentalman ( $1290 )
Seat 8: cboots ( $2250 )
Seat 9: Jvales ( $1700 )
Seat 10: Pwnasaurus ( $1340 )
Trny:10587791 Level:5
Blinds(100/200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Pwnasaurus [ 4s 4d ]
Pwnasaurus is all-In [1340]

Only thing I can say about this table is that I haven't made any big moves in a while. Probably not during the whole 100-200 level. This was probably my first push of the tournament if I remember right.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a -EV push here. Pushing small PP's from EP in this situation is not a good move. Especially at the $10 level. Many times you will find yourself called by 2 overcards, making this a coinflip. Occassionally you will be called by medium pairs and be dominated.

You can still lose the blinds and have enough to steal. I fold here everytime with a small PP unless the blinds are going up to 150/300 on the next hand. I would push w/88+. You are better to push here with AK than with 44, as you will not be dominated by a medium pair. You may even get a call from KQ or AQ, making you a favorite.

HC

Deuce2High · #4 03-21-2005, 08:40 PM

Still wondering about this push, I am still favorable towards it. Just want to see if I am crazy or not.

kdotsky · #5 03-21-2005, 08:54 PM

I would like to see more analysis too. We have an intuitive but "hand-waving" argument against it. Obviously you don't want to get called, but the question is will you get called enough by the 4 other hands to make it -EV. Maybe eastbay could plug it into SNG powertools...

Munkster · #6 03-21-2005, 08:54 PM

With no read, I'd push.
I'd push most of the time here unless the blinds are very loose.

I would be grateful if someone could actually come on with some math behind why this is -EV, or how loose do the players have to be before this is -EV.

kdotsky · #7 03-21-2005, 08:56 PM

I guess the fact that it's a $10 does matter and affects the calling ranges. I play $50's and I think I would push, but I may be wrong to do so. I don't think it's a clear fold though.

Pokerscott · #8 03-21-2005, 09:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would like to see more analysis too. We have an intuitive but "hand-waving" argument against it. Obviously you don't want to get called, but the question is will you get called enough by the 4 other hands to make it -EV. Maybe eastbay could plug it into SNG powertools...

[/ QUOTE ]

There is a 20% chance that there is a bigger pocket pair yet to act. This might make it a questionable push depending on the tightness of the other players.

Here is a rough EV analysis...

If you assume you have four people behind you with a tight calling range (A7+, KQ and any pair), then this means someone will have a calling hand approximately 50% of the time behind you since the chance of a calling hand is ~15%.

The EV calculation would then be roughly

20% dominated EV ~ (.82*(-6) + .18*(7)) = -3.66BB
30% coin flip EV ~ (.45*(-6) + .55*(7)) = +1.15BB
50% folded out = + 1.5BB

Overall EV = +0.36BB

So the play itself looks +EV overall to me (again given the assumptions and given I didn't make a math error). Someone else can check whether it is a good move for tournament EV (every time there is action you are not involved in you win thus involving yourself in action costs you tournament EV).

Pokerscott

Paul2432 · #9 03-21-2005, 09:24 PM

I push here 100% of the time. If anything other than a higher pocket pair calls you are ahead. So the question is, how often will an opponent hold a higher PP? I figure you will be up against a higher pair around 15% of the time.

So stealing is clearly profitable in chips. Whether its profitable in money, I don't know, but suspect that it is.

Paul

Pokerscott · #10 03-21-2005, 09:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I push here 100% of the time. If anything other than a higher pocket pair calls you are ahead. So the question is, how often will an opponent hold a higher PP? I figure you will be up against a higher pair around 15% of the time.

So stealing is clearly profitable in chips. Whether its profitable in money, I don't know, but suspect that it is.

Paul

[/ QUOTE ]

A very close approximation for pocket pairs behind is:

(# of pocket pairs better than yours * # of players behind) / 2

In this case you have 10*4 / 2 or 20% chance of a bigger pocket pair behind.

Pokerscott