Continuation bets

[colehard]

I am having trouble blowing a large % of my stack on continuation bets and then getting reraised on the turn. The following is a typical situation:

5 Seat $11 70%/30% pay structure - blinds 10/20 -stacks all about 1000

Hero posted small blind (10)
Hero has K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

> UTG called for 20, CO folded, Call, Hero raised to 100 BB folded, UTG folded, Button called

Flop(5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img])(pot 240)
Hero bet for 180, Button called for 180

Turn(6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]) (pot 600)

Now what?

[sofere]

At a full table this is an easy fold preflop. At a 6-person table, I may limp, but raising 5xbb is too much. Especially because you're out of position after the flop.

The continuation bet itself is way too big at 75% the pot. A coninuation bet should generally be between 40-70% of the pot (leaning closer to 50%). You made this hand too difficult for either one of you to get away from, and all you have is K high.

After the flop, the villain is screaming at you that he's not going away. He could have pockets, a flush draw, or maybe just an Ax that he's not getting away from (dependign on the players skill level, you could probably eliminate some of those hands). Either way, your beat most of the time. Check fold the turn. If he didn't get away from a 5-3-3 flop, he's probably not gonna get scared off by the 6.

Also, you just bled 30% of your stack on a pure bluff very early in a tournament. Generally not a good sign.

[KenProspero]

I agree the pre-flop raise is the problem here.

KJ is a marginal hand. I'd probably complete the small blind (full table or short table), but would fold if it was raised before it got to me.

Unless I hit my flop, I'm not investing any more here.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

The continuation bet itself is way too big at 75% the pot. A coninuation bet should generally be between 40-70% of the pot (leaning closer to 50%).

[/ QUOTE ]

If the only time you ever bet those amounts is on continuation bets, you can expect to get smooth called and popped on the turn real often by any kind of observant player. This is no different from finding people who minraise flops they hate and fold to any action over the top. The continuation bets really should be of the same size as bets that you will make with legitimate hands. 3/4 pot seems fine to me if that's how the original poster plays his hands normally. If he plays his real hands for a wide range of bets, including bets in the range you mentioned, then such a play is okay.

[ QUOTE ]
After the flop, the villain is screaming at you that he's not going away. He could have pockets, a flush draw, or maybe just an Ax that he's not getting away from (dependign on the players skill level, you could probably eliminate some of those hands). Either way, your beat most of the time. Check fold the turn. If he didn't get away from a 5-3-3 flop, he's probably not gonna get scared off by the 6.

[/ QUOTE ]

This might be true because it's early in the tournament. But, as I mentioned before, if somebody thinks you're just making a simple continuation bet that you won't follow through on, they can call you with nothing knowing that you're likely to give up the hand on the turn. So it's not clear to me that you're necessarily beat here (EDIT: In this particular case, given the size of the preflop raise that was called, I'd be a little more leery. People calling 3xBB preflop raises are likely to have a wider range of hands, including many more that they'd be likely to lay down to heavy action).

I think a willingness to occasionally fire the second barrel on the turn after a flop continuation isn't a bad thing. Early in the tournament, it's probably unnecessarily risky, particularly if playing with people who haven't seen you before. But I think it's a tool that should be available if people are not giving your flop bets any respect.

[colehard]

My standard pf raise is 3 to 6 times the BB, more at the lower blinds as a 3BB raise at this level has no respect on these tables. Note that it is only a 5 seat table so UTG is really MP3.

I thought I had a good chance at 2 folds given the limps hence the bet - I was betting 90 to win 70. On these (5 seat turbo) tables I believe that most of the time A7, KQ and 77 up would have already raised, but I see that I didn't take position into account properly on this one.

If I am facing a flush draw is it right to give them 3 to 1 odds on flop? I know it is 4:1 to hit on the next card but that assumes that they don't get 4:1 odds at the turn too? that assumes a very large turn bet in this pot. I rarely bet <70% on the flop if I am going to bet. Perhaps I need to revise this down.

As it is I bet 300 on the turn and the opponent folded.

Part of why I got into this mess is because of slight tilt from the previous tournament where the reverse happened. I made similar bets and checked the turn with AJo. I then got bluffed off the pot by a 400 (Villain showing KJo). But then AJo is, of course, much stronger than KJo... lately I am really finding that any weakness is being jumped all over (perhaps people are getting good notes on me). Of course, it may just be that I am frustrated my bluffs aren't getting any respect. Most of the time this comes up when I have AK or AQ and miss the flop.

[sofere]

[ QUOTE ]
If the only time you ever bet those amounts is on continuation bets, you can expect to get smooth called and popped on the turn real often by any kind of observant player. This is no different from finding people who minraise flops they hate and fold to any action over the top. The continuation bets really should be of the same size as bets that you will make with legitimate hands. 3/4 pot seems fine to me if that's how the original poster plays his hands normally. If he plays his real hands for a wide range of bets, including bets in the range you mentioned, then such a play is okay.

[/ QUOTE ]

First of all, this is very early in a tournament, so unless villain has some notes on you, he doesn't know what you normally bet. Secondly, continuation bets should have close to the same range as value bets, only weighted toward the lower end.
In this situation, if you bet 1/2 the pot, your giving him 3:1, not enough to make a flush draw profitable. He won't put you on a 5 or a 3, so you either have overs or pockets. If he will call a half pot bet, he will probably call a 75% pot bet IMO (either way it just looks like a continuation bet. And either way if he calls you get out.

[ QUOTE ]
This might be true because it's early in the tournament. But, as I mentioned before, if somebody thinks you're just making a simple continuation bet that you won't follow through on, they can call you with nothing knowing that you're likely to give up the hand on the turn. So it's not clear to me that you're necessarily beat here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, this is yet another reason to keep the pot small with a continuation bet. Betting 75% the pot means that if you want to make another bet on the turn it would probably have to be all-in.

Following OP's line:
PF bet 100, 1 caller: Pot 240 Stack now at 900
OTF bet 180, 1 caller: Pot 600 Stack now at 720
Turn bet must be All-in to (a) not look weak, (b) not give odds)

50% Continuation bet
PF bet 100, 1 caller: Pot 240 Stack now at 900
OTF, bet 120, 1 caller: Pot 480 Stack 780
Turn, if you want to fire another round, you can bet 200-300 and still be left with a managable stack.

I still think this isn't the place for a second continuation bet though (no scare card hit...if a Q hit, and villain put you on A-broadway, there's a good chance he lets go even with mid pockets), and I still think that KJ is certainly beaten way too often to make this profitable.

[sofere]

Your playing in 6-person, $11 tourney....of course your bluffs aren't going to get respect in the first 3 rounds. Don't force it. Play value hands, have them think that you are bluffing, and make them pay up the yin yang.

[colehard]

Yes, thanks - I am just coming off a 17-35 buy-in (10/20 tables) downswing, partly due to being card dead and partly due to not being able to win a coin-flip with the best or the worst of it.

Runs like this always seem to make me play marginal hands and then try to magically make them do something for me by pretending they are KK and getting called by J2 that made a pair of 2s on the flop. Which, of course, just adds to the length of the run making me more frustrated and so on.

Back to basics like you say...

[Unarmed]

That's a pretty crappy flop for a continuation bet when Villain called and then called a raise PF. What sort of hand do you put him on and how does that flop rate to have hit him?

[colehard]

I'm putting him on a missed hand too. Perhaps one better than mine but I am trying to make it difficult/impossible for him to continue. About the only things I am worried are any pocket pair less than 88 or possibly A2 or A4 of spades which I probably can't push out. Perhaps any Ax spades would stick around.