$10+1: Steal now to preserve future FE?

[Voltron87]

Fold and push one of the next two.

[Scuba Chuck]

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Fold and push one of the next two.

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yuk

[Voltron87]

Chances are you will get a better hand than 89 in two deals. Why is folding here so bad?

[Scuba Chuck]

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Chances are you will get a better hand than 89 in two deals. Why is folding here so bad?


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I was not critiquing the fold advice, it was the subsequent advice that I thought was "yuk."

According to the Push or Wait thread, the best hand you can expect within the next two hands is 44. I still think yuk. Nothing like running through a mine field naked with your hands over your nuts.

[spentrent]

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A "Frenzy Concept" seems terribly useful. It might be useful, or absolutely vital, to be able to identify when the game reaches "frenzy" conditions... involving number of players, average stack size, median stack, etc...


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Tournament play is more about survival, than playing king of the hill. Keep that in mind. Keep tabs on your own emotions, you'll often find that's what the table is thinking. And then do the opposite.

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You keep refering to anxiety, having a clear head, emotion... I feel like I need to clarify my use of the word "desperation." I'm not describing my emotional state; rather I'm using an emotional state as a metaphor to describe a stack size.

For instance, if I'm in a ring game with 3 BBs and I can open on the button, I'll push any two out of "stack desperation," not "man I'm hungry and I need 1.5 more BBs to get some dinner" desperation. Know what I mean? A "desperate stack" is one that is X BBs, not one possessed by an emotionally desperate player.

I'm trying to figure out what X is in certain STT situations. You're teaching me that "frenzy conditions" are a big factor in determining X.

At a table as tight as the one in the OP, I felt that the combination of the table tightness plus my "stack desperation" called for a fair bit of mania. Not "man I'm hungry and life sucks" desperation. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[NegativeEV]

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This obviously IS a huge part of your thought process, as you indicate you might be less likely to fold otherwise.

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Not a huge part of my thought process, but yes, important. This is one of many factors that I'd consider in making this play. I'm certain that you DO observe the tendancies of the player to your immediate right as that knowledge is critical during bubble play. This factor is something to consider, but it wouldn't be such a driving force in THIS hand that it would likely change my decision. Later on the tendancies of the player to your right are very important in your decision process.


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NegEV, I think we have parted ways a little bit on our thinking on small stack play. This is an interesting table right now. Everyone's tight and anxious. Blinds are now painful. There's too many people and too few chips.

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We are not too far apart here. I would most likely fold in this situation, there are just a couple of other factors I'd consider.

[Voltron87]

Eh, so you want to wait and take a blind? I'm feeling pretty sick right now and can only give basic snap judgement answers. Interesting question. You only get 4 hands until another blind after you take the first, so I don't think we gain much hand value by taking a blind here.

Alright back to sleep. Uggggggh.

[rickr]

How did you steal the blinds before? With raises or pushes? If you were that low I would assume pushes, but it would effect my decision.

Later,
Rick

[spentrent]

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How did you steal the blinds before? With raises or pushes? If you were that low I would assume pushes, but it would effect my decision.

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Pushes. I was very under 10BBs for both steals.

[Scuba Chuck]

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I feel like I need to clarify my use of the word "desperation."

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You're overanalyzing, and I think I still disagree. Desperation is still emotional, like it or not. You are seeking ways to increase your stack, rather than ways to increase your opportunity, or increasing $EV. You can increase your $EV, for example, by folding and letting others 'fight it out.' You may think that your stack is desperate, but those are your thoughts, as your stack is an inanimate object. If you knew you had a 50% chance of doubling up here or be out (with no further thoughts on the future outcome of the tourney), or you could fold to ITM, what would you take?

My point is, whether you're desperate, or your inanimate stack is desperate, look around. Do you think your stack is having these feelings in isolation? Start thinking in a bigger picture. Quit looking at just yourself. My guess is that BB, UTG, CO, and perhaps Button are all feeling the same way. And that MP1 and SB are already counting their money. One or more mistakes are about to happen. Will it be yours?

AT this point, still being 7 handed, your objective this round is to end up with an extra 300 chips or more by the end. You will very likely do this one of three ways. You steal once, and your BB is folded back to you. Or you lose that BB, and steal twice. Or, you call someone's push and win. You have 10 hands to decide. Are you thinking 10 hands ahead? Where are your best opportunities? And quit thinking about your cards. If you had AJs here, then yeah, push, that's easy. But 89 is just as strong as 23 here.

Then, think ahead some more. If someone goes out before the 10 hands are up, the very first 200/400 blinds will be you. Now what are your thoughts?

How often are you paying attention to this? I often find myself pointing my finger to the people on the screen to figure out how much "time" I have between blinds.