$10+1: Steal now to preserve future FE?

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Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (7 handed) converter

Button (t1125)
SB (t1330)
BB (t1165)
UTG (t1095)
MP1 (t1775)
Hero (t705)
CO (t805)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero ???

This is the first hand at 100/200. I have stolen the blinds the last 2 hands in a row.

Do I let the button get to me and then play bingo? Or do I push now when I have the most FE (EDIT: relative to my distance from the button)? Yes, I realize my FE has been affected by two straight steals. That's fair game in this discussion.

(My goal with all of these steal/FE/range posts is to get a sense of when desperation, as determined by stack size, overrides logic-- if that's even the right way to put it.)

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No, i fold this forsure, if you pushed 2x in a row there is a good chance someone at the $11 level will call with Ax or even worse.

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No, i fold this forsure, if you pushed 2x in a row there is a good chance someone at the $11 level will call with Ax or even worse.

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Does it matter that I'm at only 2.5BBs and I probably need some luck to finish ITM anyway? I allow connectors like 89o exactly because a part of me welcomes Ax to call here. That's the desperation speaking. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[1C5]

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No, i fold this forsure, if you pushed 2x in a row there is a good chance someone at the $11 level will call with Ax or even worse.

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Does it matter that I'm at only 2.5BBs and I probably need some luck to finish ITM anyway? I allow connectors like 89o exactly because a part of me welcomes Ax to call here. That's the desperation speaking. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

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This is true, pushing is not a bad play here. I would fold but an argument can be made for pushing also.

[RobGW]

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Does it matter that I'm at only 2.5BBs and I probably need some luck to finish ITM anyway? I allow connectors like 89o exactly because a part of me welcomes Ax to call here. That's the desperation speaking.

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Yes, it matters and you definately need some luck anyways. And who cares if Ax calls. As long as it isn't A9 or A8 you are ok. Your FE is gone now by pushing 3 hands in a row but its going anyway once you go through the blinds. You are nowhere near making the money and the blinds are about to eat you up. You need to double up here. Just push and laugh when you suck out on someone with AK.

[Scuba Chuck]

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You need to double up here. Just push and laugh when you suck out on someone with AK.

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Agree that you need to double up here. But your advice is precisely what everyone else at this table is thinking.

Is there no consideration for letting everyone else battle it out first? I think we'd all agree that we'd prefer to take a coinflip when it's 4 handed, rather than 7 handed. IMO, this is the general dynamics of a table when the table is this deep in players all short-stacked relative to the blinds. You'll be surprised how a small stack will have FE against the middle stack at this stage. They are thinking about survival. I'm more worried about the other shorties calling with similar garbage. Let two other schmoes fight it out. Hopefully, your coinflip will be when it's 4 or 5 handed. Where you can go on a pushing spreee.

Furthermore, you have 9 hands (assuming no one goes out, lol) before your second set of blinds hit you. You will find a solid hand to push (or call, yes call) with in those 9 hands. You just need to survive here, not take over the chip lead. You accumulate chips when it's 4 handed, not 7 handed.

[RobGW]

Scuba,

If hero goes through the blinds one time he will only have $400 left. Doubling up at that point is too late. I would rather gamble now and if I win I have $1400 and a little breathing room. If I lose oh well, I was not likely to make the money anyway. It being 7 handed makes it less likely you can make the money. Sure your opponents may knock each other out but that is not guaranteed. The longer you wait the less FE you have and the less it matters when you do double up. I agree it is not the best of circumstances but I think folding and waiting is worse.

[EverettKings]

In this situation, to push 89o is to push any two. And I don't think this is the time for that just yet.

Yes, you're pretty friggin short, but you have 2 hands til the blinds, and can catch something in those still. With 4 players left to act, the odds that you get called here are just too great IMO. Unless they are unusually weak-tight, I'd wait for a better spot.

-Kings

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Yes, you're pretty friggin short, but you have 2 hands til the blinds, and can catch something in those still. With 4 players left to act, the odds that you get called here are just too great IMO.

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There are so many things in this paragraph that I have difficulty quantifying. In the next two hands, how likely will I be dealt something that fares well against Ax? How is my FE affected by getting further away from the button with each deal? With 4 players left to act, how do I quantify the odds of getting called, and thus decide what range IS pushable here? Ya know what I mean?

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Unless they are unusually weak-tight, I'd wait for a better spot.

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Definitely a factor. Despite the frequent chicken little posts about the $10+1s getting so much tighter, 7 players at 100/200 is unusual. I don't know if "weak-tight" is the right way to describe pre-flop discipline though. I hope not [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img].

[EverettKings]

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Yes, you're pretty friggin short, but you have 2 hands til the blinds, and can catch something in those still. With 4 players left to act, the odds that you get called here are just too great IMO.

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There are so many things in this paragraph that I have difficulty quantifying. In the next two hands, how likely will I be dealt something that fares well against Ax? How is my FE affected by getting further away from the button with each deal? With 4 players left to act, how do I quantify the odds of getting called, and thus decide what range IS pushable here? Ya know what I mean?

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Alright, let's do some math. You're a 2+2er, you like math right?

The first step is to figure out what range of hands calls you. That's the hardest part, and depends on the texture of the table and your image. Given that they're being pretty weak tight, and your image is kinda loose, lets say any one of the remaining 4 would call with 55+, A7+, KT+, QJs ish. In reality the blinds would call with a bit more and the CO/button a bit less, but for simplicity and approximation let's just say this. Feel free to alter this range and recalculate.

Now, what percentage of all hands does this range constitute? 6 ways to make each pp, 16 ways to make each nonpair, 4 ways to make each suited nonpair. So that's 6*10 + 16*10 + 4 = 224. There are 52*51/2 or 1326 total hands, so 224/1326 = about 17% of hands.

So the chance that four people don't draw such a hand are (1-.17)^4, or 47%. We'll ignore the chances of two people calling since it's pretty small (range tightens after the first caller) and involves a triple up chance, so we'll call it negligible.

so, 47% of the time you get no call and win 300 chips. 53% of the time you get called and will win (pokerstove this) 1/3 of the time. So .53*.33 = 18% of the time you get called and win either 805, 905, or 1005 chips. Pretend its 900 for simplicity (I'm making a bunch of small approximations but it shouldn't matter that much, as we're looking for a clear decision).

So you will have .47*(700+300) + .18*(700+900) + .35*0 = 758 chips on average.

So its roughly a breakeven proposition. If they're tighter, it becomes slightly profitable. If they're looser, less so. The reason that I STILL say to fold is that while pushing here has a zero or small +EV, folding gives you a chance to catch something good, which has a much higher EV IMO. It's still marginal, but I'd wait for a better spot.

Hope that helps

-Kings