Why Two Dimes Data Is Wrong (Continued...)

[Cooker]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's go back to Greg's last example, but along a different line.

Flop: 6c 8d Qd
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Ad 2d Kh 3h 205 205 615 0 630 0 0 0.528
6s Tc Td 6d 159 615 205 0 0 0 0 0.472

After this flop, in heads-up limit play, the second hand is stuck in the pot. That's not necessarily true of the first hand.

No diamond flush, no low, no straight, the first hand can bail before the last betting round. But if any of these come in, in heads-up limit play, the second hand is stuck.

It may look like the hands are pretty close but I think you're going to lose a lot less with the first hand.

(This has nothing particularly to do with my suggesting a scoop is worth more than two half pots in a real game. This is a different consideration, but one perhaps worth noting at this time).

Just my opinion.

Buzz

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No one is disputing the fact that some hands have playing advantages on later streets which will make the twodimes equity less important. What people are saying is that if you are all in on a given street then the twodimes equity is all that is important and that it doesn't matter where the equity comes from (splitting, scooping whatever). Of course if there is betting on the later rounds there are implied odds and reverse implied odds which will drastically change the profitability of the hands. The point is that the EV calculation twodimes gives you the percent of the pot and every bet that goes in on that round that you will get IF YOU GO TO SHOWDOWN. If there will be more betting on later streets the cost on those streets may cause you to fold or cause you to make significant -EV plays that reduce the EV of the whole hand (or even make it negative), but this is why you should consider these things and not just the twodimes data.

The point FatBallz has been trying to make is that there is no statistical fast one being pulled by twodimes (which was what you indicated in your early posts). The fact is twodimes doesn't include implied odds or reverse implied odds, so with future betting, you must not rely entirely upon the twodimes EV, however, if you are going to be all in, then you should rely entirely upon the twodimes EV and the type of draw you have (scoop, low half, high half) is unimportant.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
there is no statistical fast one being pulled by twodimes (which was what you indicated in your early posts).

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Cooker - Gee.... I didn't mean that at all. I wasn't at all thinking along those lines.

I'm more interested in somehow adjusting my own simulation totals to somehow give more weight to scooping once than winning half the pot twice. (But I haven't been able to figure out how to do it).

I realize scooping once amounts to the same thing as winning for high twice in simulations.

But I continue to think that isn't quite true under real game conditions. I'm not meaning to be stubborn or obtuse about it. And I've tried to give examples to demonstrate what I mean.

[ QUOTE ]
however, if you are going to be all in, then you should rely entirely upon the twodimes EV and the type of draw you have (scoop, low half, high half) is unimportant.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed.

I'm not a pot-limit player. A big problem on this forum is that individuals with limit-Omaha-8 mentalities (like me) have different considerations than people who primarily play pot-limit.

For example, I'm rarely going to be "all-in." I'm usually drawing for something after the flop and I'm always going to want to have enough left in my stack to capitalize on making my draw when I catch a needed card. When I don't have enough in my stack to cover betting a winner on the river, then I make a rebuy. (I can think of exceptions, but they're not worth mentioning here). If I don't have enough in my stack to cover betting the river, and also don't have enough in my pocket for a re-buy, then it's time to go home.

Since I won't be "all-in," I will have the option of folding (and thus saving big bets) on the third or fourth betting round. I don't have to continue to pay when I don't have a fit with the flop or when it's better for me to fold after the turn or river.

Please do not take whatever I have written in this thread as meaning to impugn or discredit twodimes.net (or Wilson) in any way. I use twodimes.net (and Wilson). I like twodimes.net (and Wilson). I appreciate twodimes.net (and Wilson).

Buzz

[TGoldman]