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| View Poll Results: Lots more raising from the BB when I was planning on calling anyway vs a button/CO steal will . . . | |||
| +EV when used occasionally, unless you're an idiot. |
   
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2 | 16.67% |
| Likely +EV, but your postflop play must be good! Be careful. |
  
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3 | 25.00% |
| Very marginal. If you're very good postflop you might squeeze a little +EV out of it. |
  
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5 | 41.67% |
| -EV unless you're a pro (in which case why are you asking us our opinions?) |
  
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2 | 16.67% |
| -EV, period. Call or fold. |
  
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0 | 0% |
| Voters: 12. You may not vote on this poll | |||
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#61
03-31-2005, 04:18 PM
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Re: Math Question
[ QUOTE ]
It's also likely that I've lost some hearts to some of the other hands that have folded, or are in any of the players cards still in the hand. [/ QUOTE ] I think you understand this, but you do not change your "out count" for the fact that hearts could have been in the other player's hands that folded (unless you are cheating and know hearts were folded). You determine the probability of catching your desired card based on the informaiton available. So if you only think the hearts are good outs and you can account for 4 hearts you have 9 outs- period. Then that 9 outs is evaluated against the unseen cards you are drawing from. This means catching a heart on the next card is 9/47 or 19.15% or roughly 4:1 against. The fact that other players may have mucked a heart does not enter into this analysis. Again, I think you understand this, but your sentence above could be confusing to folks who are learning how to calculate outs/probabilities/etc. 
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#62
03-31-2005, 04:21 PM
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Re: Math Question
[ QUOTE ]
Again, I think you understand this, but your sentence above could be confusing to folks who are learning how to calculate outs/probabilities/etc. [/ QUOTE ] You're right, this could be confusing. It just seems like I read somewhere that you can narrow down the scope of probabilities against the dead cards. Guess I've been dreaming about poker too much lately.
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#63
03-31-2005, 04:25 PM
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Re: Math Question
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Again, I think you understand this, but your sentence above could be confusing to folks who are learning how to calculate outs/probabilities/etc. [/ QUOTE ] You're right, this could be confusing. It just seems like I read somewhere that you can narrow down the scope of probabilities against the dead cards. Guess I've been dreaming about poker too much lately. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, if you know the dead cards.
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#64
03-31-2005, 11:06 PM
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Re: Math Question
[ QUOTE ]
This is just for my sake. We all agree that there are potentially 15 clean outs. I think this is a mistake to assume. I think it's likely the Ace is dead. It's also likely that I've lost some hearts to some of the other hands that have folded, or are in any of the players cards still in the hand. There were 20 cards dealt, and the flop makes 23. 14 of those cards no longer "exist." 4 hearts currently exist in my hand and on the board. There are 29 cards remaining in the deck. I'm sure some book somewhere has done a rough estimation on how to calculate outs in this scenario. Can anyone point me in the right direction? [/ QUOTE ] Don't forget the card that was burned before the flop. The analysis needs to be done on the 28 remaining cards, not the 29... why hasn't someone included this discussion in any books on calculating outs. Finally, Scuba is leading us somewhere in this calculating outs discussion. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] TM. PL. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
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#65
03-31-2005, 11:13 PM
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Re: Math Question
Man, this must be one helluva long losing streak for you. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]
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#66
04-01-2005, 09:53 PM
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Re: Math Question
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] This is just for my sake. We all agree that there are potentially 15 clean outs. I think this is a mistake to assume. I think it's likely the Ace is dead. It's also likely that I've lost some hearts to some of the other hands that have folded, or are in any of the players cards still in the hand. There were 20 cards dealt, and the flop makes 23. 14 of those cards no longer "exist." 4 hearts currently exist in my hand and on the board. There are 29 cards remaining in the deck. I'm sure some book somewhere has done a rough estimation on how to calculate outs in this scenario. Can anyone point me in the right direction? [/ QUOTE ] Don't forget the card that was burned before the flop. The analysis needs to be done on the 28 remaining cards, not the 29... why hasn't someone included this discussion in any books on calculating outs. Finally, Scuba is leading us somewhere in this calculating outs discussion. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] TM. PL. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] No, you don't count the burn cards because you do NOT see them, that's why it hasn't been in any books. Scuba, as for subtracting hearts to a heart flush draw, the only way I'm seen that is when playing games like 7-card stud.
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#67
04-01-2005, 10:00 PM
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Re: Chasing flush draws
I think it is a dangerous call. It would cost you most of your chips to call, and what if your flush never comes. If he didn't go all in I would definately call. but don't listen to me, lately I've been a losing player so my advice is probably dead wrong.
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#68
04-01-2005, 10:08 PM
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Re: Chasing flush draws
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You have to put one of these guys on a set or two pair. [/ QUOTE ] If this was played on a weeknight, this is utterly false. On a weekday, it might ring more true, but I still call here. You'll see top pair here often.
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