Math Help (No-Limit)

Mark,


There was an interview with Richard Tatalovich on Poker Pages recently which I was very impressed with. One of his themes was "why ask why ?". I think it applies perfectly here. There are a lot more useful things you can think about. Why do these things happen ? They just do !


One more point to try to make it clear : you say "if I see someone win with a pair of aces they usually don't have them again within a short period of time.". Well, if someone doesn't get Aces on a particular hand, they also usually don't have them again within a short period of time. Just like Greg says, you can observe random patterns in the past, but it doesn't help you predict the future.


Andy.

Greg,


You said,"Patterns can be found in any discernible past event. However, in cases like cards or dice, those patterns are only present in the past, and can never be extended into the future."


Do you have any mathematical or scientific proof that patterns in random events can not be extended into the future?


In the late 80's I worked for a company that sponsored research at the Univerity of Illinois and Pennsylvania. The basis for the research was to be able to predict cardiac arrests in critically ill infants before it happened. It's been a long time since then so I can't give you exact details. But, they were able to do this with very high accuracy. What they looked for were patterns created from plotting a fourier transform based on the respiratory rate/heart rate. With later research at the University of Texas they found that substituting blood pressure was more accurate.


I just wanted to mention this so you understand where I'm coming from and why I am interested in patterns occuring in random events.


Mark

in random events like dice. past results do not affect the future as each event is on its own. with cardiac arrests past events do in fact determine future events. so thats the difference. it may be hard to understand if you look at random events and want to find patterns for the future but they are not there. just like fortune tellers are a hoax.

Ray,


There has been plenty of proof that fortune tellers are a hoax. I will not go into the details, but it is totally off base to even refer to that subject in this context.


What I am interested in talking about is patterns that occur. Many people obverve this phenonemom, but no one here can show me some research to prove otherwise. Furthermore, everyone here refers to probability, but probability only deals with the behavior of long term results.


Most gamblers have observed patterns in even money or close to even money events whether it is dice or coin flips.


Gambling rusults fall into three different categories. At the Craps table players will call it choppy, hot, or cold. The extremes of these patterns is what hooks a gambler on this game. For example, when the table is hot players will make alot of money on all kinds of bets that would be bad. Once, they have made a killing they keep coming back to make that big kill again. The problem with this thinking is that these patterns of events don't occur often enough and are unpredicable when they happen. The phase that most gamblers experience is the choppy phase. This is when the hot and cold streaks are short and the house percentage on the game will assert itself. The choppy streaks usually may run hot or cold for four to six decisions from my observations.


I know you are not interested probably in any of this information. But, I am willing to do some reseach to prove that you can gain a slight edge. When I'm finished I will publish it. Case closed.


Goodbye


Mark

Hell, don't publish it Mark. Keep it to yourself and win a few million first.


Joke :-)


Andy.

Andy,


I'm only going to publish the stuff that has only a small edge, the rest I'll get rich from. Just like Ray Zee. He only tells us a little and keeps the good stuff for himself. Mason told me that he does share his stuff with his best friends, but I can just about bet that he will not write a No-Limit Hold'em or Omaha High book.


Good Luck


Mark