2/4 BB special...turn question

[sweetjazz]

So I'm new to 2/4, and getting my feet the ol' 1-tabling time. Always a good time to review my play.

Villain in the hand is 32/4/0.7 (with only 40ish hands of data).

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (7 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO folds, SB calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, SB folds, Hero ???...

Specifically, what range of hands would you put MP1 on?

Results and commentary to follow later.

[yawak]

KJ
J5
J4

I dont think he will raise with just a pair of Jacks.

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
KJ
J5
J4

I dont think he will raise with just a pair of Jacks.

[/ QUOTE ]

55? 44?

[Catch of the Day]

With 40ish hands, your read means little. Also, JQS, 10Js.

Catch-

[Fnord]

[ QUOTE ]
With 40ish hands, your read means little. Also, JQS, 10Js.


[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. We can tell a lot about how this guy thinks from those numbers. Plays lots of hands, not valuing a whole lot of hands pre-flop. Probably calls down a lot.

Looks like a 2pair or better raising standard without more information. But with two other players in the hand I would pop it again.

[marching_on_together]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
With 40ish hands, your read means little. Also, JQS, 10Js.


[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. We can tell a lot about how this guy thinks from those numbers. Plays lots of hands, not valuing a whole lot of hands pre-flop. Probably calls down a lot.

Looks like a 2pair or better raising standard without more information. But with two other players in the hand I would pop it again.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree 40 hands means there is going to be a large margin of error on those numbers but they are not worthless he plays too many hands which is a sign he/she is not a good player so therefore his post flop play is probably poor. You cant have 1000 hands on every player so you have to make do with what you have. I agree with fnord that this looks like 2pair or better rasing standards but with the additional caller i would call this down, i'm not folding as my read is not strong enough but i would rather spend the extra bet seeing a showdown (and gaining some info) than 3-betting here.

[krishanleong]

Easy 3-bet. The extra players in the hand make this a profitable situation.

Krishan

[marching_on_together]

Even with the limited read i don't think your ahead here, if you 3-bet your pumping the pot for your opponent. He's raising two players doesn't have clearly aggro stats i think at 2/4 on party against the average opponent i.e. loose and not overly aggro your probably behind. Even with the small number of hands i don't think he is loose enough to limp with J4 or J5 and not many players like this will raise a draw against two players. I still call down

[sweetjazz]

Thinking about what villain likely has on the turn, I think KJ has a high likelihood. Also pretty possible are 44, 55, two spades with a jack, and maybe even JJ. (If he's lost other big PPs recently, he might just limp in with JJ.)

Less likely, though more possible than random cheese, are J5, J4, K5, K4, 54, AA, AK, KQ, AJ, QQ. And there's a very remote chance that he has some other worse hand and hit the raise button for who-knows-what-reason.

All in all, it looks like I'm behind a fair amount here. And it's probably getting capped if he has a set. Makes me think that a calldown is appropriate here. But it's close, given the extra two callers in the pot. They could have big draws which don't help my pot equity, but they could also have a K or J, drawing to 2 or 3 outs.

I will post the remainder of the hand and results later today.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain in the hand is 32/4/0.7 (with only 40ish hands of data).

[/ QUOTE ]

I think postflop agression is near useless without WTSD.

Krishan