NFL picks - Analysis

Not much discussion of the games thus far. Here are the ones I like this week.


Green Bay -2.5


Typical intradivision rivalry, but the Packers own the edge in this matchup. I see this game as being a similar matchup to the SF/Bears game (absent the miracle and with a better QB at the helm in Favre.) This game is huge, and GB knows it. Favre has been shaky, but when he's on, I want the Pack. Chicago's pass defense is one of the worst in the league, and I think that Favre's early utilization of that weakness will soften up an otherwise-tough Chicago rushing defense. Also, GB's pass defense is one of the best in the league, and will prevent whatever gimp QB Chicago has in from leading any type of miracle charge. The Bears are on TV and in the paper every day, saying that this is "the most important game of the year"... I'd believe that they think that if Terrell and others weren't on TV talking about getting JayZ on board to help them write another version of the Superbowl shuffle. GB knows how important this game is and at the end of the day, they're the better team. I look for the Pack to jump out early and hang on for a solid win. Pack gets the cash...


Lions +5.5


This team is not that bad. They are going to win one of these weeks. Won't go into the entire breakdown on this game (b/c the only person that commented on this one agreed with me) but I wouldn't be surprised if the Lambs won this one straightup. That's a fair number of points at home against a pathetic offense in TB's.


Raiders -6


Oakland is the best team in the league and is not going to be embarassed on a national telecast by the Seahawks. They've played WELL on the road this year, and own a clear advantage in this matchup. If this game were in Oakland, the line would be 16. HFA is not worth that much. This team looks to me to really be on a mission this year. No let downs, no fear, just business. Over by the end of the 3rd.


Comment welcome.


-CW

.....no opinion on Bucs-Lions, but would lean to home dog with gun to my head. Love Green Bay -2.5 - 3rd best pick of the week to me. 1st pick is Seattle +6 vs Raiders and just as much, I love the over in that game as well. I think its a high scoring 34-27 kind of game and even like Seahawks on money line at +220.


Last 2 for me are Bills +6 vs Pats. Believe this divisional rivary game will be played tight and look for another outright upset with Bills taking a FG game 23-20 or thereabouts.


Lastly, love the Jet-KC over. Chief D, especially on road is very suspect.Also expect Jet D to be in flat mode after big win in New Orleans. Both teams in the 20s about right, with late score deciding cover.


Very close to a play on 3 others: Pat-Bill over, Rams -18, and Giants -5.5 vs Cards in desert. Think Bills and Pats will put some points up as they go back and forth. Rams owe Panthers for 2 losses last week and with weak Carolina QB, this should probably get ugly, real fast. Only fly in the ointment for me is the St Louis propensity for turnovers lately - that could be a killer laying this much wood. Plus, I got burned taking G-men last week laying 10 vs Cowboys as COllins gave up 14 pts in pick-sixes. Which brings me to the Giants and belief that sometimes the road is the best place to focus on nothing but football. Gotta figure defense to play tough off 2nd half shutout of Cowboys, allowing offense to get back into the game. Also, believe G-men offense will come out flying early and put some points up. Best place to have Cards is generally in chase mode- although don't tell that to the Eagles!!