$22: 75/150 Blinds, MP Pushes, Fold AK?!

[FakeKramer]

I wasn't too sure what my play was. I'm assuming a lot of you are going to say "call", but this one certainly did not feel like an instacall to me. No read worth mentioning. Thoughts?

***** Hand History for Game 2756103769 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:15967028 Level:5 Blinds(75/150) - Thursday, September 22, 15:03:05 EDT 2005
Table Table 14943 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 7
Seat 1: greaceboy ( $695 )
Seat 2: JimKelly007 ( $1100 )
Seat 3: gottabedone ( $190 )
Seat 4: Kekepuff ( $1775 )
Seat 6: herricksteph ( $1225 )
Seat 8: mrIceman333 ( $1700 )
Seat 10: TheRoyalWee ( $1315 )
Trny:15967028 Level:5
Blinds(75/150)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to TheRoyalWee [ Kc Ac ]
Kekepuff folds.
herricksteph folds.
mrIceman333 is all-In [1700]
TheRoyalWee????

So what are your thoughts on this one?

More often than not,being short stacked (10X the big), I would call it, seeing it as the best opportunity to double I will likely see. He has gone allin from mid/late pos with 1700 chips. If he had one of the two hands that dominate you - aa or kk - he probably does not push. He likely holds AK, AQs or a mid pocket pair. That means you got almost a sure coin toss to double up. This is an inflection point in the tourney, and I do not think you can afford to throw it away. The only exception, IMO, is if you have some specific info on him that he only pushes with aa or kk -- not likely.

[Freudian]

Without a read this is hard. I'd call most of the time since the size of the raise should mean that we can rule out AA, KK and probably QQ. That means AK is starting to look like a very strong hand against his range.

It kinda smells like JJ-TT though which is nasty but you will see AQ/AJ often enough.

[bluefeet]

Well....since EYE have just purchased "the tool" [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]...

I can tell you that assuming a "tight" range for his push, this is -EV. Against an "average" range, it swings the other way. Not real surprising I guess. We'd have to consider the reasons for his push from this position.

The BB is basically all-in here. By maximizing his FE here PF, he could simply have an "average" hand, looking to add an easy couple hundred chips to his stack vs. BB's random holdings. The over-push is also quite possibly gaurding a vulnerable hand (say a small-med.PP, AJs or something), that shortie Button or yourself might be more inclined to push over, had he opened for a standard raise. He's obviously looking to isolate.

Hmmm. I guess that's the challenge of solving these puzzles - "the range". Absent a read - having a history of opening with suspect hands, over-aggression, etc....I'd like to give him credit for a decent pocket pair here. BUT, seeing we are down to 8-9BB's ourselves, with the possiblity of this reaching 4-5BB's after a swipe through an increased blind....ON TOP of the fact that we're still 7-handed, thus significantly reducing the hands YOU can be pushing - I gamble here.

[FakeKramer]

Thanks bluefeet. You're really an asset to this forum.

[jeffraider]

[ QUOTE ]
Without a read this is hard. I'd call most of the time since the size of the raise should mean that we can rule out AA, KK and probably QQ. That means AK is starting to look like a very strong hand against his range.

It kinda smells like JJ-TT though which is nasty but you will see AQ/AJ often enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree 100%.

[chipolino]

This is close. If you're up for a race situation then call, if not then fold. I think both plays are close enough though.

cheers [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]