Hardest card in the deck on the river this time... - Page 2

durron597 · #11 08-13-2005, 10:37 AM

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Also, why do you think he will bluff at the pot?

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This isn't the issue. The issue is that he will probably bet with more hands than will call a bet, because my turn bet didn't really mean anything and could have been a bluff after the flop checked around.

The other reason to check is that we puke if we get raised (which we would most likely only do with a flush).

Unarmed · #12 08-13-2005, 10:37 AM

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I know you know this (with 15xx posts, geez....) but his range is not any two after he calls the turn bet. I'd say he has the flush about 25% of the time, what do you think?

Also, why do you think he will bluff at the pot?

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I meant he's in the BB with any 3, any 5, any 6, any 8, all of which probably call the turn given the action and typical opponent. FD often bets the flop here, FD sometimes raises te turn here, etc, etc, etc. 25% is way high IMO.

He'll bet the river because people love to bluff when someone shows obvious weakness, even if they have a made hand they should probably just show down. You don't really want to bet this because both the king and the flush are scary for Villain. But thats just basic poker right, only bet on the river if a worse hand will call.

bennies · #13 08-13-2005, 10:50 AM

thanks for elaborating on your opinions (durron too). You are most likely right. I only feel you are underestimating one thing...

RULE 27 of Poker: People love to call.

inyaface · #14 08-13-2005, 11:44 AM

What about underestimating keeping a small pot with the big stack when your in a pretty good position on the bubble. Also you already stand to win a sizable pot if you have the best hand.

The once and future king · #15 08-13-2005, 12:35 PM

PVS preflop.

Freudian · #16 08-13-2005, 12:38 PM

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He's the BB, there's really no reason to fear the flush as his hand range is any two. Just check and let him bluff into you.

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#17 08-13-2005, 03:47 PM

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He's the BB, there's really no reason to fear the flush as his hand range is any two. Just check and let him bluff into you.

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UVaHoo · #18 08-13-2005, 04:09 PM

I like check/calling.

I don't think he has a flush draw, as a reasonably aggressive player with a decent stack might take a shot in a small pot with a flush draw after you had already checked.

I agree that he'll take a shot at the pot with more hands than he'll call your bet with, and if he does have the flush, he's not going to try to scare you out of the hand by betting too much. Even if he checks it down, you extend your chip lead and are in great position after taking down a reasonable pot.

durron597 · #19 08-13-2005, 07:13 PM

Alright, I'm glad to see that my check was correct. He had one of the few hands that he was likely to check behind with; 99, which made me wish I had bet.

bennies · #20 08-14-2005, 05:46 AM

From your own post: "You don't really want to bet this because both the king and the flush are scary for Villain. But thats just basic poker right, only bet on the river if a worse hand will call."

If we agree that both the king and the flush is scary for villain, then I think he'll check behind with any pair, including a 3 a 6 an 8 etc. However, I don't think he'd be scared out of calling your bet with any of these hands.

You guys have more experience though, in general, do people bet more hands than they call? It seems to me that Sklansky leaves this question unanswered.