push or fold under 10 bb's rule

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
My push range here is approximately any pair, any ace, KQ-KT, QJ-QT.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are the chip lead in the *Small Blind* and you are going to bet your tournament on QT after I put in 33% of my chips? I find this hard to believe. Even if true, this is not typcial in the games I play, and my post assumes typical players. If you did this much calling, I think I'd know it by now.

My problem with the numbers is that you only talk about chips. This isn't a ring game, so we need to talk about the impact on the prize money.

As for the numbers, you say that if I fold to your push I have 1900 left. If I call your push, I have equity of 2655 since I have 42.82% of equity. This also means I'll have 0 chips more then 50% of the time.

In my scenario, I'll have 1900 chips 100.00% of the time. Remember, not all chips are of equal value.

I can't believe you forced me to bust out Excel. I used the formula described here and found that my folding plan has an EV of $31.01 (this is a 10/1 tournament).

Calling and winning is worth $45.30. Calling and losing is worth $20 (ie 3rd place). Calling and splitting is worth 35.46.

PokerStove is still cranking away on the exact #s, but based on your equity % of 42.82%, let's say 39.82% win, 54.18% lose, 6% split. When I run this, the weighted average for calling is $31.00.

So $31.01 vs. $31.00. I think the result is clear! Just kidding.

I think most players will be much tighter than you describe in this spot. This swings the number MUCH more in favor of folding.

Throw in the standard "avoid close gambles for all your chips when you are a better player" and I think its clear that folding is correct after the big stack pushes in a 10/1 game.

The rest of your post talks about whether it made sense to bet only 1000 in the first place. This is a more complicated question and I'm not really understanding your math at this time. I'll read it again in the morning.

[zaphod]

[ QUOTE ]
I can't believe that you are making me do math. I knew I should have just said "10xBB doesn't always apply" and just end it. Now I'm fumbling around in PokerStove and Excel trying to figure this out. I might just make a bad beat post out of spite.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol
I am waiting for your bad beat post.

[ChrisV]

Sorry, that should have read (.4)(2200) + (.6)(.36103)(6200) because you only get your equity in the 6200 pot the 60% of the time that you call. You're right that it should be (.4)(3200) though, which changes push equity to 2623 chips which is almost identical to raising 1000 and calling the push, which sounds more reasonable.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, that should have read (.4)(2200) + (.6)(.36103)(6200) because you only get your equity in the 6200 pot the 60% of the time that you call. You're right that it should be (.4)(3200) though, which changes push equity to 2623 chips which is almost identical to raising 1000 and calling the push, which sounds more reasonable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks Chris! That makes perfect sense. Sorry to have bugged you so much about this.

[ChrisV]

QT is a decent hand, it has an equity of about .41 against typical raising ranges. I ran the numbers and it comes out to a net loss of around 340 chips if you always call. This compares favourably with the 1600 I win when you fold.

$31 versus $30 might sound insignificant, but given that $20 of that is locked away already, it's effectively a 10% increase in your win. Or to put it another way, at $200 tourneys, where I play, that same increase would be an increase of $20. My ITM is somewhere around 37% so if I could make a gain like this every final three it would be an extra $7.40 per tourney, or about $37/hr. Good poker is all about pushing these small edges.

In final three it isn't just gambles for all your chips you want to avoid, it's any kind of confrontation at all. It's precisely because I want to avoid confrontations that I'm pushing, because against a typically aggressive player just like me, I can make him fold fully 40% of the hands he would otherwise have reraised allin. That I didn't gamble all my chips isn't very comforting when I've lost over a third of my stack.

If you think you're up against timid players who will only reraise big pairs and so forth, then go nuts raising 1000. Note that even against such a player, if I give them say AA-66, AK, AQ, AJ only, in other words entirely hands that dominate you, your chip gain from folding is pretty small - 235 chips. If you want to move up past the 10's at some point I think it's better to not chase small gains like that and instead learn strategies that will serve you well against other good, aggressive players.

[microbet]

The 'follow the 10BB rule' people seem pretty convincing to me, but if it is very clear that it is a good rule, then why not 11BB rule or 12BB or more?

Do you ALWAYS push or fold with 10BB, almost always push or fold with 11BB and usually push or fold with 12BB?

Eh, I thought I was being a smart-ass, but that doesn't sound too bad to me.

[assron]

I understand all the math, but there's absolutely no way I'm moving to push or fold mode with 1000 chips and 50/100 blinds. Believe it or not, I still think I have some space to maneuver at this stage, and I can make a lot of things happen for me that I couldnt if I went to a preflop game. At this stage, I'm still calling 2xBB raises with suited connectors and pairs. 7-8x BB is when I start pushing here. From what I've seen in the many many many SNGs that I've played is that the players who start pushing too hard with 1000 chips and 50/100 blinds tend to, for one, get less respect for their raises, and secondly, leave themselves completely vulnerable to being called by dominating hands as the whole table eagerly awaits them to push while holding a probable winner. I wouldnt go push or fold with 10xBB until the blinds got to 100/200 and there are 6 players or less. All the math in the world isn't going to change my mind on this one.

[ChrisV]

It's ten because thats the largest amount where the maths dictates that you should almost always call when your standard (3xBB) raise is reraised.

Actually, that amount is more like 9-9.5, but it's been made ten for a couple reasons: (1) Easy to remember (2) Pushing gives the additional benefit that people will fold hands like AJ or 55 that they may have raised allin with.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
the maths

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't realize you were British, Chris. Or is it Canadian?

[ChrisV]

Australian. We use British spelling, etc.