Situation I think I get wrong every time

[Moonsugar]

I assume I have a little over 2000 chips. If so then I probably bet 800 chips again. Then I shut down. I know I am open to getting bluffed if a lot of people know this so I can't do it every time but I think this is what I would do.

My second choice is to check it through and call or bet/raise if no A or K hits on the turn.

My third choice is to check it all the way down.

Fourth is to go big on the flop to protect v. an A or K but I am sporked to any J.

AA you can check it even more because you fear no overcards. Whereas with an opponent holding of AK you will live to regret not betting and an overcard comes.

Edit: I forgot about the flush draw. That makes this hand a lot tougher. (As if it was easy). Maybe just go all in. If you want to gamble, of if flush draw not there then you can play as above.

[William]

You must be joking [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Moonsugar]

No, I wasn't. I didn't remember the flush draw in first post so I edited it. But if my thinking is still wrong then, well, that's why I am not an expert. But I don't think you can play the exact same way every single time so that is why I presented a list, in order of frequency, of possible plays.

In your post you said that this was a great flop for QQ and that must be a joke if you think my post is a joke.

[William]

Think about it this way. There are only 2 J's out there. Aren't you a HUGE favourit of having the best hand? You can't play poker and be afraid of gosths all the time....

Take care,
William

[Moonsugar]

Other hands beat you beside a J and the guy is not calling you with a random hand. But that is not even that important, the heart of our disagreement I am sure lies in this:

The all in has +EV in terms of chips but that isn't everything in a tourney.

And if the guy is going to fold to an all in he will most likely fold to 800. You wil most likely only get called if you are beat and then you are out. If you take my option 1 and bet 800 you still have a stack, a short stack but you have chips.

[William]

If you bet 800 or check, you are inviting him to raise/bet on the turn. Then what? you fold? and wait to flop the nuts next time. That will be at the next tourney I imagine...

[cavalier]

I agree with William. If I'm the leader, I want to win this hand right now. There are too many dangerous cards out there.

You both have 2000 left and he pot is at 1700 when that scary, but good-for-you flop comes.

If you bet anything less than 1/2 of the pot (850) you are now down to so few that you'd be committed to the pot. Anything less than 850 probably would invite a draw.

The 1/2 pot or less bet might get called by an overcard/flush draw ( which you don't really want ). If another scary card comes on the turn, you might actually decide to throw away the winner if he bets into you.

If you push in and he's got a drawing hand, the bet would be big enough to force him to hit or bust. This means he's got to be a player willing to go all-in with a draw.

Plus, by pushing in, you can't get scared by the turn and make the mistake of throwing away the winner. It only lets him make the mistake of folding a possible winner.

Finally, I move in and hope that I'm right in thinking I have the best hand. If I get called and I'm wrong, I play it the same way next time.

[CrisBrown]

Hi Guy,

My tendency here is to peck-and-check. I have an overpair, yes, but not a secure one. If the BB has Jx or 44, I don't want to give away my stack. But neither do I want to give him a free ride if he's on a flush draw. Ironically, that pair of Js on board helps me against the flush draw, as he would not be drawing to the nut hand and needs better pot odds to justify chasing the flush.

So let's switch shoes for a minute and put me in the BB's situation, assuming I'm drawing to a flush:

I usually want 4:1 to chase a naked four-draw at the flop, with the extra overlay to cover the times I'll miss at the turn and have to fold. Here I'd want a lot better than that, because I can't count the A, K, Q, or 10 of my suit as secure outs. AJ, KJ, QJ, and JT are all common raising hands, so even if I hit my flush on an A, K, Q, or 10, I have to tread lightly in case he's filled up. Depending on my exact two cards, I have only 5 or 6 secure outs, not the usual 9 for a flush draw. So I'm only 8:1 to hit a secure flush on the turn, and only 6:1 to hit it by the river. I would want 7:1 to call at the flop, again with the overlay to cover the times I'll miss the turn and have to fold.

So ... returning to my QQ holding, I only need to bet 400 at this flop. That would give the BB just over 6:1 on his call (400 to win 2200), not enough to justify chasing what may be a dead flush.

That's the "peck" part of peck-and-check.

If he calls, I have to worry about his holding Jx or 44, and I'm shutting down, calling only if he bets small at the turn or river, and checking behind him if he checks.

Cris ... who did not rush through this post so maybe the math is actually right.

P.S.: If it's not, someone please correct me.

[CrisBrown]

Hi All,

My answer is somewhat colored by the fact that most of my opponents know me to be a very aggressive player, and will thus trap in situations like this. Also, a lot of my opponents would call a pre-flop raise from the BB and take a flop on hands like JTs, QTs, AJ (suited or off), JJ, and of course 44, because they're disciplined enough to muck if it misses. So ... that factored into my reply, and if your opponents don't play that way, my strategy would not apply.

Cris

[William]

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