#1
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Making a Fair Deal
This came up in a tournament home game I was playing in recently. For the sake of simplicity, I am going to round out the numbers.
Anyways...Two players go heads up late in a tournament. The next person to be knocked out does not make the final table and is OUT of the money. Player #1, who is short stacked ($20) gets dealt pocket Queens. Player #2, who is the chip leader, gets dealt pocket Kings. Player #1 acts first and goes all-in. Player #2 calls. Everyone else folds. Before the board is dealt, player #2 offers a deal to P1. He says to P1, "I am an 8-2 favorite to win this hand. You only have a 20% chance to double up and win $40, but you also have an 80% chance to bust out. Give me $12 right now, keep $8 for yourself, and we will move on to the next hand." There was some argument from among the other players on whether this was a good deal on a mathematical level. P2 argued that since P1 only had a 20% chance to win $, that means his equity, or break even point was only $8. Someone else argued that since P1 was only a 4:1 underdog, his share of the $40 pot was $10. At this point, everyone was confused. Who is right? What would have been a "fair deal" for P1? |
#2
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Re: Making a Fair Deal
4 to 1 = 1/5, not 1/4...I believe therein lies the confusion. With a $40 pot, a $30/$10 split is 3:1.
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#3
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Re: Making a Fair Deal
Actually, there wasn't that much confusion with the 4:1 comment. Most of us knew right off the spot that 4:1 isn't the same as 1/4. All his comment did was muddle everyone's head with more numbers.
But is the deal that P2 proposed correct? Did it make mathematical sense? |
#4
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Re: Making a Fair Deal
[ QUOTE ]
Someone else argued that since P1 was only a 4:1 underdog, his share of the $40 pot was $10 [/ QUOTE ] This is wrong...and would be correct if the odds are 3:1. P2's reasoning seems correct. He's taking $32 out of the pot and the other player is taking $8 out of the pot, which is a 4:1 split. |
#5
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Re: Making a Fair Deal
Did the other players fail to realize that this is costing them money, and that it is against the rules??
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#6
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Re: Making a Fair Deal
Great question. Nobody seemed annoyed [at this friendly home game] about the idea of these players making a deal.
Before anyone had a chance to speak up against it, the player with Queens rejected the deal and went for his long-shot. Result: He lost and busted out. |
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