No Limit Holdem Question

[Gabe]

I don't think you want BB to fold, but the A2 does.

[Rich P.]

The button raised on a semi-bluff. With$600 in the pot, a $1200 raise may be too little to discourage a call, but itisn't far off.

The BB went all in with KQs. Coming over the top is not that bad with this hand especially since the button is likely on a steal. Winning the hand right there is preferable, but there is also a argument for calling the extra $800 to see the flop since one would be getting better than two to one. I, personally, perfer the agressive move since KQs is a rank 2 hand. The fact that he's suited my add enough value to the hand to make him even money or better.

The call by the button really depends upon how much chips he has. The generic, he has more than you, is not really sufficient information. Also, how far along in the tournament is important, too. Knocking an opponent out is more important later in the tournament. Assuming, however, that he just has more than the KQs, I don't like the call. (P.S. I almost never like to call)

He made the $1200 bet so he could fold if he ran into resistance. If not, he should have just gone all-in in the first place. Calling all in now probably a knee jerk reaction. Of course, he may be a slight favorite, but that slight favorite isn't good enough. Putting most of your stack in on a even money or slight edge is not a good move. He may have been mathematically correct to call, but stratigically, I would not want to cripple myself by gambling on an even money bet.

I hope I'm right is some ways.

[Mikey]

I would like to answer this question a little different than how most would answer the question. Everyone is talking about odds and percentages and 3-2 this and 2 to 1 that. Throw those odds out the window.


The button makes is $1200 to go.

Now lets say that I am the SB and I think that he's weak. By weak I mean I have a gut feeling that he is trying to steal with a marginal hand, also I think that if I reraise here all in, he will muck a weak Ace. The reason I am making this play is because I want him to lay the hand down without putting up a fight and I'll just have more chips now to play with. Also if I do get called, maybe I'll get lucky, but I'm making this play of raising with KQs to make him lay down his hand, because I have a gut feeling he is weak and will most likey fold.

Now when he turns his hand up. After he calls, I'm going to be really surprised and also I'm going to wonder why the hell he called with that.

Now let's say that I have A2o and make the raise and the SB pushes all in, well now I have a decision to make, do i think he's the type of player who will push in with anything less than Ax or a pair, or will he do it with two high cards. I think as the A2o I would muck here and let him take it, without even thinking twice. No way am I going to put more money in this pot and give him a bigger stack even if he throws up A5o or pocket treys where I assuredly would have been a huge dog.

The button calling the 2200 I think is nuts!!

But given what the SB had and the button had. The SB made the button look like a Genius, unless his name is Stu Ungar or TJ Cloutier.

[jtf]

A2o is 54.4% favorite against KQs

[gilly]

IMHO the small blind made a decent play if he felt like the button has been pushing the table around and would try and steal the blinds with almost any old hand and that he will lay down for the all-in raise.

The button on the other hand really makes a questionable call. However at that point there is $5,000 in the pot and it is $2000 to him. So he is getting 2.5 to one. However I do not think this is enough. The only hand the SB can have that he can beat that the SB can even somewhat reasonably raise with is a hand like KQ KJ QJ.

If he has an Ace you are in big trouble and if he has a pair you are in big trouble. To me the button should lay this hand down for that re-raise.

[togilvie]

From the SB's perspective: There's 1800 in the pot, and he needs to put in an additional 1000. He's got to win 35% of the time _against hands that the button would raise with_ to break even.

I calculate his chances of winning as follows:

Hand__________________P[Win KQ]____# combinations
AA_______________________17%______12
(AK or AQ)________________30%________24
Any Ace__________________46%________40
KK_______________________14%________6
QQ______________________35%________6
Smaller Pair_______________49%________120
KJ, KT, QT, T9s, etc________65%+_______60
I assume that he never raises on a complete bluff.

Given these estimates, I calculate a blended P[Win] of 47%, and an EV[Call] of:
($2800*.42) - (1000*.58) = $800. A call seems easy.

As to moving all-in, it depends on what hands the button will fold.

If he will fold the Any Ace and KJ, KT category to an all-in bet, you will win $1800 immediately with 37% of the time(100 hands). EV Contribution: $671. Since he's folding his worst hands, P[Win] goes down. You win 42% of the hands, for an EV contribution of $884. $884 + $671 = $1,555. Raise it up!!!

If he calls with everything, we're only getting 47% of each additional dollar, so we should just call.

Now, lets look at it from the Button's perspective, after SB pushes all in. He needs to put in an additional $2200, with $4600 in the pot. He only needs to win 32% of the time for his call to be good. He also knows that the SB will push all in with any hand with a 40% chance of winning. Given all of this, the button is correct is calling, even though he is a likely dog.

Any feedback would be great.

[Gabe]

You are a favorite against the button and Big Blind on most hands the BB would have. You are a slight dog to A2, head up, so you lose a little on each extra dollar you put in. Strategically, KQs might be eaiser to play after the flop than A2o, even out of posistion. Therefore you made a mistake in raising.
The A2, of course, was correct to call your raise.

[Timer]

I don't lose a nickel with the KQs. Several reasons: 1. I'm all in so the opener won't lose any more than $2200, which makes a call a lot easier. 2. I can't beat an ace high. 3. Why should I play this hand? It would be better to wait until I am the aggressor.

The button played the hand correctly. Calling the reraise is a tough call but not impossible.

[Rick Nebiolo]

David,

I'm really new at this with experience only at mini online one table tournaments, online head up play, small tournaments with buy ins around $140 and mini no limit games with $2 and $3 blinds and restricted buy ins.

I'll assume that the big blind has a big stack and the button and big blind are typical no limit players.

Gap theory and stack size managenent comes into play here. The button should be attacking with any ace and a bet of three times the big blind is about right. If he faces a big reraise from a blind he can get away pre flop. The button made a good raise preflop.

The small blind should call although folding could be considered against some opponents. The big blind will still be facing $800 more and two opponents so the SB doesn't need to put in the extra chips now. This is not limit poker and there is no need to force out implied odds hands when you are all in. Assuming the big blind folds (which he will do the vast majority of the time whether the small blind reraises or smooth calls) the pot will contain $2800. The small blind will have $2400 left. This is enough to make a nearly pot size bet on flops including any king or queen, any straight draw (including inside straights), and any flush draw. He should also be bluffing many ace high flops since the button will be a favorite not to have an ace. I'm too weary and incompetent to do the math but this is what I would think (and why I stick to small no limit play at this point).

Given that the button reraised all in and the pot now contains $5000 the button made a mistake calling $2200 more. He has to figure he is up against a better ace or pair most of the time. In both cases he is dominated. He is only a small favorite against the actual hand. But he won't see that type of hand often.

Regards,

Rick

[tewall]

I think you're right. The hardest of the questions is, I think, whether the button should call SB's reraise. It's easy to assume that the button should fold because he will be up against a better ace or a pair.

However, against a pair an A2 should win about 30% of the time, and even against a better ace he's not necessarily in bad shape. If the better ace is something like A5 there will be a lot of ties. It's only if the better ace is something like AT that A2 really gets dominated, and even in this worse case scenario A2 still wins 23% of the time, which isn't too far off from the 32% he needs. If you take into account the hands like KQ and so forth that the SB could have, this seems like a borderline call.

The key question would be with what hands the SB would raise with.