Problem with outs....

[arabie]

I'm noticing far too often that i am incorrectly counting my outs. Once my opponents cards are revealed at the end, the outs/cards i was counting are quite often sitting in my opponents hands (add to this what i don't know from folding hands!). This must have a huge affect on the pot odds i've been relying on and can't seem to find a mathematically sound way of remidying the problem. Does anyone have a mathematical system for taking off outs (for example always consider a flush draw 7hearts vs 9 still drawing,(with a logical justification though))

I am not talking about finding tells or putting players on hands and then taking off the outs because this is already a given.

[arabie]

Comon guys and gals... this post needs a response! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] thanks a lot in advance to those who take te time

[arabie]

Comon guys and gals... this post needs a response! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] thanks a lot in advance to those who take te time

[SossMan]

I'm not sure what you're getting at here.

If it's the old, "my opponents may have folded my flush outs preflop" argument, well, that's simply false. You cannot discount your flush outs and not discount the non-flush outs.

[arabie]

So your answer is suck it up? Do you not think that if you are overcounting your outs, you can change you from a profitable to a non-profitable player?

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
So your answer is suck it up? Do you not think that if you are overcounting your outs, you can change you from a profitable to a non-profitable player?

[/ QUOTE ]

there is no such thing as overcounting your outs if what you are talking about is fearing that some of your outs were folded preflop, or are in the burn pile, or are on the bottom of the deck....unknown cards are unknown cards.

give a concrete example for me, and I'll see if i can help...

[arabie]

okay, lets say Hero has Ah Jh on the button
UTG (Ad 5h) folds, UTG+1 (7h 2h) folds, UTG+2 (Jd Jc) calls, MP1 (Kh 4h) folds, MP2 (As 3h) calls, CO (10s 9h) calls, Hero raises, SB (7d 4d) calls, BB (Ac 3s) folds. Everyone else calls.

Flop (11 SB): 10h 2d 6s
UTG+2 bets, MP2 folds, CO raises, (14 SB) Hero?

now i've got:
1.5 outs for backdoor striaght
1.5 outs for backdoor flush
1.5 outs for each overpair
=6 outs needing 6.7:1 to see the turn.
the pot is offering 7:1 thereby justifying the call.
Now, 7 hearts are missing, 3 aces are missing, 1 king is missing for my backdoor straight, and 2 jacks are missing.

Now are my odds still correct to call? don't forget this includes the fact the overpair outs have been cut down because they will only make the best hand about half the time.

[arabie]

okay, lets say Hero has Ah Jh on the button
UTG (Ad 5h) folds, UTG+1 (7h 2h) folds, UTG+2 (Jd Jc) calls, MP1 (Kh 4h) folds, MP2 (As 3h) calls, CO (10s 9h) calls, Hero raises, SB (7d 4d) calls, BB (Ac 3s) folds. Everyone else calls.

Flop (11 SB): 10h 2d 6s
UTG+2 bets, MP2 folds, CO raises, (14 SB) Hero?

now i've got:
1.5 outs for backdoor striaght
1.5 outs for backdoor flush
1.5 outs for each overpair
=6 outs needing 6.7:1 to see the turn.
the pot is offering 7:1 thereby justifying the call.
Now, 7 hearts are missing, 3 aces are missing, 1 king is missing for my backdoor straight, and 2 jacks are missing.

Now are my odds still correct to call? don't forget this includes the fact the overpair outs have been cut down because they will only make the best hand about half the time (on top of sometimes putting me in a dominated situation).

[SossMan]

the problem is that you don't know what the other players folded, so how can that factor into your decision making for the hand?
You don't know if they folded your backdoor st8 outs, or your backdoor flush outs, or all the blanks.

You simply have to use the information presented to you. Unknown cards are unknown and therefore are treated with the same frequency as cards still left in the deck.

[MLG]

All right, I think I see your conceptual problem here. When you calculate the pot odds that you need, you are calculating the amount of outs that you have devided by the number of unknown cards. Those unknown cards include the cards that have been folded. For example after the turn there are 46 unknown cards (52 cards in a deck - 4 visible cards - two cards in your hand), so when calculating pot odds you divide your number of outs by 46. This calculation includes the chance that your outs have been folded.