#1
|
|||
|
|||
Is this true?
I was in the BB with JJ, UTG goes all in for about half my stack. Fold to me.
Now, I put this player on any PP, any AK and any AQ. HU my jax are 60/40 favs vs this range? Really? |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Is this true?
This one's easy, I'll take a crack.
Firstly, the odds: JJ vs any underpair = 80% JJ vs any overpair = 20% JJ vs itself = 50% JJ vs AQ or AK = 56% <font color="red">**</font> Now we have to work out the frequency at which each of our opponent's holdings occur. These are the holdings we're interested in: Lower pocket pair: 22,33,44,55,66,77,88,99,TT = 9 lower PP Higher pocket pair: QQ,KK,AA = 3 higher PP JJ = 1 AK, AQ = 2 We're almost there, we just need to work out the frequency of those holdings. In a random deal there are: -6 of any pocket pair possible (because of suits) -16 of any two unpaired cards (AK, AQ) possible So we have: Lower PP: 9*6 = 54 total possiblities Higher PP:3*6 = 18 total AK,AQ: 2*16 = 32 possible JJ = 1 possible So, our EV against this range is the sum of: (frequency of each hand occuring)*(probability of JJ winning against that hand) / the total number of hands = [(54*0.8) + (18*0.2) + (32*0.56) + (1*0.5)]/105 = 65.22/105 = 62.11% Therefore, JJ against his hand range is 62% favored to win. I'd just caution this hand range is probably only applicable late in a tournament against certain opponents. **Note that I have included the weighted average of suited and offsuit AK and AQ, so the numbers are correct. |
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Is this true?
I also ran the numbers through PokerStove and got the following.
22+, AQs+, AQo+........37.4370 % JJ..............................62.5630% The discrepancy is due to my rounding off the win% Pokerstove is a great tool for doing these kind of EV calculations (and it's free). But in case you wanted to know how it was done... |
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Is this true?
So what is the worst pair you can call with, 88? 99?
|
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Is this true?
Equity against the hand range 22+, AQ+:
QQ....67.9% JJ......62.5% TT....59.1% 99....55.0% 88....51.5% 77....47.8% |
|
|