Bet the flop with middle pair?

[TheGrifter]

You didn't mention what the buy in was for this SnG so that may completely change my opinion, but at the levels I've been playing lately (10+1) I use a few conditions to determine whether it is wise to semi-bluff.

- How many people are in the hand? I would prefer there to be no more than 2.

- Does the board contain potential draws? At the limits I play people will call even a pot sized bet with a flush or straight draw, and generally there will be multiple callers which makes it correct for them to do so.

- Are my opponents capable of folding? I know I pick up very few pots on a board like that by betting 2/3 of the pot, especially when my bet is only 5% of the average stack.

- If I am beat can I improve to the best hand? You may be able to, but there are also some dangerous cards out there like if you make two pair or a set on the turn but the card is a third heart.

If I had A8 in your position I would make this play in a second, not only because it would make a much more powerful two pair but also because the ace is likely to give someone else top pair. If I am raised by someone (representing the Jack) I probably fold. Again, these assumptions are probably specific to very low buy in no fold'em SnG's.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Obviously it will happen some fraction of the time -- my estimate earlier in this thread was 40-50%

With 2 opponents, I'd agree. When I said full of draws I was thinking that since your bet represents a J, any opponent with a bigger stack with a heart overcard likely has a backdoor or gutshot draw to go with it. That's enough to take one off and see what develops. Also 2 overcards will call your bet a significant portion of the time.

You got 4 people to fold. You had the best hand this time, but in the long run, I think this play costs you too much.

I've lost too much on hands like this.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
And in no-limit, most players are not going to call a reasonable-size flop bet with just overcards.


[/ QUOTE ]

If you consider both calling and raising, I think that's a poor assumption. A hell of a lot of people can't get away from AK or AQ here without making a play for the pot.

eastbay

[allenciox]

Let's examine the issue probabilistically. Giving you the biggest benefit of the doubt that they hold any hand with equal frequency except the very best hands which they would have raised on --- out of the 1081 - 37 =1044 (assuming not JJ-AA or AK since no raise pre-flop) hands that any of your opponents can hold, any opponent can have any of the following hands, with which they probably at least call your bet:

Hand #poss
Jx 138
8x 93
AQ 16
KQ 16
QT 16
Q9 16
76 7 (assuming at least one heart)
65 7 (assuming at least one heart)
TT 6
99 6
44 3
hh 35 (i.e. two hearts that are not any of the above)
----------
tot 359

The odds that any one opponent has one of these hands is 359/1044 = 34.3%

The probability that none of your four opponents has these hands (assuming independence) is approximately 18.5% --- so your estimate of 60% is way off it is more like 81.5%.

Even if you guess that they are tighter and that they won't call you with the QT or Q9 or overcards unless they have at least one heart, then the probability that none will have a hand worth a call is only 22.7%.

This is a very bad play in no-limit.

[ThaSaltCracka]

I tried to read some of the other posts but I was quickly bored. IMO, I would try make maybe 2-3 plays like this a tournament. Maybe you steal blinds, maybe you get called, it doesn't matter, you change up your table image either way, which is good. I would say though if you got a quick call, to not put anymore money into the pot, if someone calls after some time, a turn bet will probably give you the hand. I like the play!

[M.B.E.]

Allenciox, you say the number of combinations for Jx is 138. By my calculations it's only 132. (There are 47 unseen cards of which 3 are jacks and 44 are non-jacks. 3x44=132. Even if you include JJ here, which you said you wouldn't, the total is less than 138.)

Similarly you give 93 combinations for 8x; by my count it's only 85 (42 x 2 + 1). This includes pocket eights but excludes J8 since that was already counted.

However, making those corrections to your analysis does not change your final result very much; it yields a 79.9% probability that none of my opponents has these hands (not 81.5%).

My actual point of disagreement with your analysis is your assumption of how loose my opponents are. In my experience very few opponents would call my bet holding 87 (for example) on the J-8-4 flop. Some players would call or raise holding A8, but I think even with that holding the majority would fold. Also I don't expect to be called by TT, 99, AQ, KQ, QT, Q9, 76, or 65 (other than suited in hearts). As for other heart draws, some players would call, others would not. It also depends on their position relative to the bettor (me). If the player on my left has a heart draw he's more likely to call with it than any of the other players since it would close the betting.

[M.B.E.]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
You didn't mention what the buy in was for this SnG so that may completely change my opinion, but at the levels I've been playing lately (10+1) I use a few conditions to determine whether it is wise to semi-bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]
This hand was from a two-table $100+9 SNG.

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
- If I am beat can I improve to the best hand? You may be able to, but there are also some dangerous cards out there like if you make two pair or a set on the turn but the card is a third heart.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree that this is one factor to consider but not of highest importance. For one thing, if someone has me beat with a jack they're likely to raise so I won't be around to see whether I improve on the turn. In the actual hand I held the deuce of hearts so I had three "clean" outs to two-pair, but I had only one "clean" out to trips.

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
If I had A8 in your position I would make this play in a second, not only because it would make a much more powerful two pair but also because the ace is likely to give someone else top pair. If I am raised by someone (representing the Jack) I probably fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree.

[M.B.E.]

Thanks, La Brujita. Good points. I think you're right that betting 100 is better than 90 for the psychological effect.

[M.B.E.]

The other question arising from this problem is whether I should have raised preflop. In TPFAP Sklansky gives an example of raising in the big blind with J5o after several limpers. He says that everyone will fold often enough to give you positive EV. I rarely make this move -- does anyone here?