Bet the flop with middle pair?

[M.B.E.]

Twenty minutes into a NLHE SNG on Stars we are eight-handed with blinds 15/30. My stack is only 970 (average is 1688). Three people limp, SB completes, and I get a free play in the big blind with 82o. Flop comes J-8-4 with two hearts. The pot is 150. SB checks and I bet out 90.

I think this is a good play, but I'm not sure. I'd be interested in comments on (a) whether I should just checkfold this trash, (b) whether the amount of my bet was optimal, and (c) whether it made much difference that I actually flopped a pair (in other words, should I have made the same play if my cards were 72 instead of 82).

[DougBrennan]

If I were going to bet this, and that's not a given, I think I'd go with a pot-sized bet.

And if you're called, you lose, without hitting something else.

[CrisBrown]

Hiya M.B.E.,

I dunno. This isn't a bet I'd usually make. If I were going to go on with this hand at all -- and I doubt I would if anyone bet behind me -- I'd be playing it as a bluff-catcher, that is, check-calling if the bets were small and the board didn't get any scarier. With four other people in the pot, it's likely that someone has a J or a heart draw or T9 and I don't think they're going to go away for a bet I feel comfortable making on only 2nd pair, no kicker.

Cris

[M.B.E.]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
With four other people in the pot, it's likely that someone has a J or a heart draw or T9 and I don't think they're going to go away for a bet I feel comfortable making on only 2nd pair, no kicker.

[/ QUOTE ]
Suppose there's a 60% probability that at least one of my opponents has a J, a set, two pair, a heart draw, or T9. (Actually I think it's less than 60%.) Also suppose that they will call or raise me with any of those hands. (Actually I think many players will fold the T9 or the flush draw.)

That means that 40% of the time I win T150 while 60% of the time I lose T90. That's positive chip-EV of 6.

If I get my opponents to fold 50% of the time rather than 40%, then the chip-EV is even higher (+30).

Is there anything wrong with my logic here?

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
With four other people in the pot, it's likely that someone has a J or a heart draw or T9 and I don't think they're going to go away for a bet I feel comfortable making on only 2nd pair, no kicker.

[/ QUOTE ]
Suppose there's a 60% probability that at least one of my opponents has a J, a set, two pair, a heart draw, or T9. (Actually I think it's less than 60%.) Also suppose that they will call or raise me with any of those hands. (Actually I think many players will fold the T9 or the flush draw.)

That means that 40% of the time I win T150 while 60% of the time I lose T90. That's positive chip-EV of 6.

If I get my opponents to fold 50% of the time rather than 40%, then the chip-EV is even higher (+30).

Is there anything wrong with my logic here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure where you got 60% from, but I think it's wrong to assume those will be the only call possibilities.

Some people will call with overcards, as well as other hands, putting you on a "feeler bet" which is basically what you're doing. Then you're looking at the turn card (probably another no-helper), now there's more money in the pot, and you're wondering if this guy called as a slowplay or if he's chasing your chase. Then what? Now you're tempted to dig a deeper hole, and your EV calculation doesn't consider that.

With 4 in, I just get out of the way here. With 3 or 2, I might make a bigger bet than you proposed.

eastbay

[M.B.E.]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
I'm not sure where you got 60% from, but I think it's wrong to assume those will be the only call possibilities.

Some people will call with overcards, as well as other hands, putting you on a "feeler bet" which is basically what you're doing.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's a jack-high flop, so the only hands anyone could have containing overcards are AK, AQ, and KQ. If someone had one of those, they would likely have raised preflop. And in no-limit, most players are not going to call a reasonable-size flop bet with just overcards.

(If instead of J-8-4 the flop was something like 9-8-4 I'm not going to bet my 82 because now it is likely that my opponents have overcards, and may call with them.)

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
Then you're looking at the turn card (probably another no-helper), now there's more money in the pot, and you're wondering if this guy called as a slowplay or if he's chasing your chase. Then what? Now you're tempted to dig a deeper hole, and your EV calculation doesn't consider that.

[/ QUOTE ]
No, my EV calculations assume that if called on the flop I fold to any bet on the turn or river. That may not maximize my EV, but it does give positive EV if my assumptions are correct which I believe they are.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
And in no-limit, most players are not going to call a reasonable-size flop bet with just overcards.


[/ QUOTE ]

If you consider both calling and raising, I think that's a poor assumption. A hell of a lot of people can't get away from AK or AQ here without making a play for the pot.

eastbay

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Easy check-fold on the flop. The most dangerous situations in a tourney come when you get a free play in the BB with a hands you'd normally fold and then you get a piece of the flop.

You have middle pair, no kicker and you're betting into 4 players on a flop full of draws. The only way this bet makes any sense is to try to win this pot right here. That's not going to happen.

[M.B.E.]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
You have middle pair, no kicker and you're betting into 4 players on a flop full of draws. The only way this bet makes any sense is to try to win this pot right here. That's not going to happen.

[/ QUOTE ]
Obviously it will happen some fraction of the time -- my estimate earlier in this thread was 40-50%. I don't understand your argument for why that is too high. J-8-4 is not "a flop full of draws". Granted there is a possible flush draw, but only one openended straight draw. There are seven possible gutshot draws, but only three of the seven are remotely playable (QT, 76, and 65). Plus, why would someone call my flop bet with a weak draw?

In the hand in question, my four opponents did all fold to my flop bet.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Obviously it will happen some fraction of the time -- my estimate earlier in this thread was 40-50%

With 2 opponents, I'd agree. When I said full of draws I was thinking that since your bet represents a J, any opponent with a bigger stack with a heart overcard likely has a backdoor or gutshot draw to go with it. That's enough to take one off and see what develops. Also 2 overcards will call your bet a significant portion of the time.

You got 4 people to fold. You had the best hand this time, but in the long run, I think this play costs you too much.

I've lost too much on hands like this.