Folding 99 pre-flop for a raise

I've folded 99 twice in the past two weeks when two different early position players raised pre-flop. In both hands, the pre-flop raiser was a player who I had only seen raise pre-flop with premium hands (Group 1 & 2) and usually pairs. The players weren't necesarily good overall players but they were tight pre-flop as far as their raising standards. In the first hand, I was in middle position and everybody folded to me. In the second hand, there were two callers to me in the cutoff.


My dilemmna is this: Is folding 99 to "legitimate" early position raises a +EV play, especially with few callers? Or have I set my pre-flop standards too high/tight? I seem to have an arbitrary dividing line. I would almost always call with TT but have little problem mucking 99.


I've been thinking even more about this in the last couple days since reading a chapter in John Feeney's new book "Inside the Poker Mind" titled "Do You Pass the Ace-Queen Test?". In that chapter, John argues that cold-calling pre-flop raises with AQo (the bottom hand of Group 3) and worse hands is a sign of poor pre-flop play. John wants these kinds of players in his game.


With other pairs the decision is easy but 99 is in a murky middle-ground along with TT and 88.


So, how do you play 99 when an at-least-respectable player raises pre-flop from early position? Or even middle position with at least one limper ahead of him?

On the first hand, if your sense is that the early position raiser will only be raising with premium hands, folding the 99 is correct. You're in middle position. If someone calls behind you (or worse, reraises), your sandwiched in between with a tough hand to play.


In the second hand, with 3 players already committed to the pot, you can certainly play since the pot figures to be 5 or 6 handed.

You can get out cheap if the flop in unfavorable, but stand to win a big pot if you snag a 9.

There are many more unpaired hands that people raise with from early position than paired hands. Unless you're certain that a player ONLY raises with AA, KK, QQ i'd play 99 for a raise and hope the call will entice others to join in for what might become a big pot.


If no A, K, Q come on the flop you might very well be holding the best hand going into the turn and there's just so much pressure those overcards can exert out of position.


If the flop hits ugly then it's usually an easy fold.

First off: NO hand that is clearly worse than the opponent's is more than barely profitable head's up. Respecting the opponent's standards is a key key to winning at holdem. There is no shame in folding a hand clearly worse than the opponent's. So if you feel like folding go ahead and don't lose any sleep over it.


The key to this situation (and if fact most marginal situations) is how well you can do after the flop. Are you likely to fold the "best" hand later? Are you likely to pay off with the worst hand later? Are you confident when the flop comes J63 and the opponent bets? Are you paranoid or confident? If you are confident in your read of the opponent than 99 is marginally profitable against a tight raiser so long as you have position.


- Louie

Against a solid player who open-raises from early position or who raises from middle position after another player limps in, I believe it is generally correct to fold pocket nines against a "solid" player. The reason is that a solid player in these situations will almost always have AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AK, AQ, AJ suited, or maybe KQ suited. Against almost half of these hands you are a huge dog. Against the other half, you are a marginal favorite. This makes you a long term money loser in my opinion.


However, very few players are really "solid" by my definition of the term. Most players raise on some weaker hands. Occasionally, an expert like Mason Malmuth will open-raise from early position with a hand like nine-eight suited (See "Hand To Talk About" from last month's postings). Against opponents who play this way, you may be giving up too much by folding pocket nines.


John Feeney's A-Q test was an interesting essay that generated a big thread about a year ago on this forum. I agree with John that against a "solid" player, A-Q should be folded for a raise. However, against most players, I believe you are giving up too much by folding A-Q. I have seen many players raise with A-J offsuit or A-T suited as well as K-J suited and even K-T suited. Against a player like Mason Malmuth who sometimes open-raises from early position with a suited connector in a full tabled game, I would never fold A-Q.

Jim,


Just because Mason made this play one time utg doesn't mean you should be calling his early raises with AQ off. He makes that play as an image play. Obviously it worked since you now willing to call him with AQ off everytime. I don't remember what percentage of the time he said he makes this play. But I'm sure it is extremely low. I think you would be making a big mistake

playing AQ off to his early raise.


Welcome back btw.

Can anybody remember what month the Feeney "Fold AQo for a raise" post is in? I'd like to go back and read through it but the archives are so huge it could take all day to find it. I don't even know the title.


Can anybody help?

But pokerguy, if you read Feeney's essay, he makes a point about folding AQ against an early raiser because an early raiser will have a Category I, II, or III type hand (HPFAP categories). He states that AQ is only superior to 27% of these hands. As an aside, given that you have AQ, it is superior to 38% of these hands.


But John goes on to say that: "This does not mean that AQ is never playable against a raise. Sometimes it is. Among other factors which bear on your decision are your position and that of your opponent, his likelihood of being on a steal or semi-steal, his raising standards, and your opponent's skill level."


I agree that AQ is a fold against some players. But not against a player who will occasionally raise with a suited connector especially in early position. You have position over your opponent and may have him badly dominated if he is raising on QJ suited, JT suited, T9 suited, or worse. In the "Hand To Talk About", Mason had 98 suited. No way am I dumping AQ against someone who open-raises even a small percentage of the time when he may be holding a suited connector.


I have also talked to a number of good players here in Vegas and California as well as some other poker writers and they take issue with the "AQ Test".

Dynasty, I started the thread about a month or two after John Feeney came out with this book entitled "Inside The Poker Mind". My guess is that it would be in the June, July, or maybe August 2000 archives under the Texas Hold'em General Theory section but I am not sure. It was a huge thread and virtually everybody got involved including Malmuth and Sklansky. Steve Badger was posting on 2+2 back then and he labelled the advice of folding AQ to an early raise as being "one of the worst pieces of advice he had ever heard" or something like that. Obviously, I do not agree with Steve on this at all but I think John's "AQ Test" essay was very controversial. The real value of the essay was that it forced many players to re-think the conditions under which they would cold-call an early raiser with AQ.

Jim,


Mason would fall into the catergories of a player you would want to fold too when you have AQ off. Just because he makes this play once in a blue moon. Doesn't mean you should not fear his early raise. The player that you would not fold to are bad players that raise with garbage consistently.


Not only will Mason normally have a very strong hand. But will also play it well. Why do you want to mess with a solid player's early position raise. Either your dominated. Or the times you are good you'll proabbly only get the minimum off them.