Q2s... Odds to call preflop for a flush draw

[slugheads]

Q2's... What are the odds to call preflop when your goal is to flop either a flush draw, or 2 pair....

Would 7-1 or 6-1 odds be good enough preflop?

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
Q2's... What are the odds to call preflop when your goal is to flop either a flush draw, or 2 pair....

Would 7-1 or 6-1 odds be good enough preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. 6:1 would be enough.

The chance of flopping 2 pair, trips, a boat or quads:

(3*3*44 + 2*3*44 + 2*3*3 + 2)/(50 choose 3) = 0.0346938776

The chance of flopping a flush or flush draw:

((11 choose 2)*39 + (11 choose 3))/(50 choose 3) = 0.117857143

Chance of either:

0.117857143 + 0.0346938776 = 0.152551021

Expressed in odds form:

5.55:1

I must admit this seems low to me, so I'd appreciate if someone else could double check my work.

Cheers,
gm

[jason_t]

I believe it to be correct. At least, I arrived at the same answer.

[tworooks]

EDIT: nevermind, this is probability forum. my post is pointless

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
EDIT: nevermind, this is probability forum. my post is pointless

[/ QUOTE ]

It was also very wrong, but you changed it right as I clicked "Quote" to reply to it and saw a message different than what you originally posted.

[tworooks]

[ QUOTE ]
It was also very wrong, but you changed it right as I clicked "Quote" to reply to it and saw a message different than what you originally posted.

[/ QUOTE ]

so u don't think this will be -EV by just calling because the preflop pot odds allows it? if this were a suited-connector type hand then I like it. but possibilities that give him a "good" hand like trip queens on a QQ7 flop are danger hands, because he is easily beat. i would like to hear what u have to say about it, because i really dont see how a hand like this can be profitable just by going with preflop pot odds.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It was also very wrong, but you changed it right as I clicked "Quote" to reply to it and saw a message different than what you originally posted.

[/ QUOTE ]

so u don't think this will be -EV by just calling because the preflop pot odds allows it? if this were a suited-connector type hand then I like it. but possibilities that give him a "good" hand like trip queens on a QQ7 flop are danger hands, because he is easily beat. i would like to hear what u have to say about it, because i really dont see how a hand like this can be profitable just by going with preflop pot odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is an interesting question. Because this calculation makes it look like this hand is playable from the button or CO after 4 or 5 limpers in almost any game. Indeed, by the same reasoning, T2s or 92s should also be playable.

I have a feeling that the main reason it usually isn't actually playable is the threat of a higher flush when your flush does come in. Especially since 10% of the times that the board 3 flushes by the river, it will also 4 or 5 flush:

((11 choose 4)*39 + (11 choose 5))/((11 choose 3)*(39 choose 2) + (11 choose 4)*39 + (11 choose 5))= 0.0983207593

And the times that it does you are likely to be beat.

I don't think your point about boards like QQ7 being dangerous is really relevant. For one, they represent a miniscule amount of the equity of the hand as we've calculated it (keep in mind that the flush equity accouts for most of this hands value). And two, since there's only 1 Q left, the threat of domination is really not so high.

There may be other reasons as well. I'd be curious to hear other thoughts.

gm

[Siegmund]

Yes, "if your goal is to flop a flush draw or two pair," 5.5:1 odds are good enough.

And yes, it is -EV to play this hand with only 5.5:1 odds. Four-flushes don't win pots.

You are spending a whole small bet preflop to buy yourself a modestly positive calling position on the flop and a break-even calling positon if you miss the turn and have to call again.

You need to not JUST flop a flush draw, but flop a flush draw with such favorable pot odds as to gain back the small bet you've already spent. This happens when your call on the flop (the second chip you put in) is the 11th chip into the pot. That is, 6:1 preflop is good enough IF you are confident the flop won't get raised and four people will see the turn. In the "real world" flop raises and folds happen often enough I don't see myself ever playing Q2s on the button, only in the small blind.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]

You need to not JUST flop a flush draw, but flop a flush draw with such favorable pot odds as to gain back the small bet you've already spent. This happens when your call on the flop (the second chip you put in) is the 11th chip into the pot. That is, 6:1 preflop is good enough IF you are confident the flop won't get raised and four people will see the turn. In the "real world" flop raises and folds happen often enough I don't see myself ever playing Q2s on the button, only in the small blind.

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Nice explanation. This reason is more important than the one I offered, IMO.

[tworooks]

k, i agree about the amount of the equity in the hand as it was calculated. that makes sense. i was also going to talk about the flush part, but didnt feel like talking about it. basically, with 5 or 6 other players in the pot, there is a 10% chance like you said, and with that the only reason you being in the hand, it will be hard to get away from. the only way i could see you being able to get all in is when you are losing to a higher flush, otherwise you probably won't get paid off enough to make it a profitable play. and the same thing, but to a lesser extent because of the rarability of it happening, with a QQ7 board, the only way your getting called is when you're beat.