MNF bet

OV 44.5


If I decide to bet a team I will make sure to put it on here, that way Big Al won't call me a liar. I don't even know why I am justifying his post with an answer. But, the last 2 games I bet (it was 2 that I did not post Al, not 3) were at the last second before kick off. Also Al, how come you did not say anything last week when I went 7 out of 9, those were posted (actually 6/8 were posted. Took NYG at last second...did not post)? And last but not least, what reason would I have to lie? Especially, when it was obvious I was asking for advice from J. Feist? Take care

www.onlinesportsbook.com still has it at 44.5 (7:53 Eastern)

Since most books have it listed at 47 or 47.5, I'm wondering about middling the over under. If you got a 3 pt differential in the side bets, you'd LOVE it as a middling opportunity right?


So does the same principle apply for the over/under?


natedogg

I hope my math is right on this. Lets say you lay 11 to win 10 on both sides with one line being O45 and one being U47. Now, you will most likely not hit 46, but will only end up losing a dollar. So, what you are actually doing is betting one dollar to win twenty. You can look at it two ways. That you either think a particular game has a better than 5% chance of landing on 46. Or you can always do this when the situation arises, hoping that 1/20 games will end up with the 46 (or whatever the middle will be). I feel that 5% of the time this should happen, but have not been betting long enough to risk it. Another thing that could happen is the total will be 47 and you will not lose anything or 45 and you will not lose anything. Now, with a 3 point differential your odds increase even more. So, I guess I would say it is a profitable bet. Maybe I should have done this. Sorry such a long post. Would really like feedback on this.


Craig

Craig, my advice is worth what you pay for it [img]/images/smile.gif[/img] as actually I know where you're coming from about betting at the last second. I posted picks the first week of NFL season and had other games at the last minute as well. I won't say how I did.

Its not that we care if you are lying or not Craig, its just that posting picks after you made them do the forum no good. I know few people follow my picks or anyone else's for that matter, but most of us are trying to get some sense of analysis or angles we didn't look at for these bets when we put them up for the world to see. I know a few people come on here for ego purposes, beat their chests when they win. However most solid handicappers let their own personal results speak for themselves, in private where it counts...their bankroll. I will be the first to say I don't care if I go 0-7 here, if the games I really bet go 10-7 I am a happy camper and the world can be damned that I posted the 7 losers. Not that I would be proud of that, but sports betting is in the end a selfish proposition. What you post here is not what matters, its what you bet. So to come on here and tell us what you bet that you didn't discuss really has no benefit to us. Continue doing it if you choose, but just understand what is valuable to all of us as a posting board and what isn't.

Totals are not as valuable for pure middling situations as football sides. If this was basketball you have a much better shot. This all is due to key numbers being much more valuable in football and also the fact that scoring is much more bunched in football than basketball. There are many more large margin victories in basketball due to more scoring and more valuable home court advantage. So to say a 3 point middle is a great proposition, well probably not. I would say if you did this purely for middling basis (not to cover a bet) you would be close to ambivalent on this value. I would guess you have about a 1 in 15 to 1 in 20 chance of catching the middle here so its a slight overlay to the juice or none at all. What this number is basically is a situation where if you liked the over you lost a lot of value and should carefully consider your bet and if you liked the under you got a much better price and should definitely go ahead and bet it.

Definitely agree with WildBill about the posting of picks..

Most of the people coming online to actually post are probably more than "hobby gamblers", and find great value in the reasoning behind the bets made by others.. not necessarily the bets themselves..

That's not to say that I wouldn't listen more closely to some people's picks than others, b/c some people are really hot this year already..

I won't bet Big Al's shoe in of the week just because he posted it, but I will definitely take a good look at it, because he's proven himself to be a winner on this site.. (NFL this year, and NBA play-offs last year)..


It's the combination of analysis, like WildBill provides, and the picks of guys like Big Al and Fez and others that make this a great forum...


As for MNF, doesn't seem like too many people bet the winner.. I agree for sure on staying away from this game because I still don't quite have a feel for what the 49ers are capable of this year.. Hopefully tonight will go a long way in helping us for the weeks beyond..

Curious on how others view the niners this season.. Comments on Garcia??

I have no idea what to make of them. They definitely are an improved team, but this team last year didn't have so much trouble scoring TDs and settling for so many FGs. Losing Garner might be some of it, but Barlow seems well suited for being a short yardage back. So do you say the offense is struggling because they can't put up 7's instead of 3's? Defense is moving up though, but how much? They have held their opponents to reasonable scores, but they haven't really shut them down either. When they need to make big plays, are they capable of that yet? They couldn't stop the Rams down the stretch, but many teams have that problem. Time will tell, an intriguing team and I don't think the answers are really known yet. One thing I will say is I can see how Garcia toiled in the CFL so long. His mechanics look horrible. It looks like he is trying to thrown the ball like a bullet every time because of his motion. I don't know if its coachable, but if he took it a bit easier and laid the ball in more I would think he could do a lot better. The Niners have dropped a lot of balls, but maybe some of that is he is like a young John Elway throwing everything with one speed even on short routes.