Bubble Decision

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

$30 + 3 2-table SNG on 'Stars. 5 left, 4 paid. Blinds are 100/200/a25 and will double in 2 minutes.

I have 2460 before posting (shortest) and pick up 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in the BB

Folded to Button (3400) who raises to 800, SB (2845) folds. Pot = 1225

Your move? Table has been aggressive. Every hand has been raised for the last 2 levels. The other two stacks have 10617 and 7678.

Results later.

[LetsRock]

Oooooh, I hate this spot.

Button's raise wreaks of a real estate move, but....

I guess I'd take two things into consideration:

1. Have the bigger stacks been mixing it up? If they've just been taking turns stealing blinds then it's time to make a move. If they've been going at each other, then maybe give them another chance to take each other out.

2. (Lesser of the 2 considerations) Has button been running hot?

If it's been a pot stealing frenzy - I shove 'em in. Your stack is big enough that you won't get a loose call from button and the pot is big enough to matter.

If the stacks have been doing battle (and especially if the buttons been running hot), I have to lay this down and hope that the big stacks will do something for you.

The way things have been going for me, whatever I'd do would be wrong, so I especially hate this spot right now.

[CrisBrown]

Hiya Kurn,

I'd push in. The button may be on overcards, but in a five-way game he's as likely to be on an underpair, or just one overcard. What's more, a lot of the overcard hands with which he'd make this raise (e.g.: KT, QJ, etc.) are not hands with which he's likely to call an all-in reraise. I think that plus the probability of your being at least a slight favorite if called, and possibly a dominant favorite, makes this an easy all-in move for me.

Your mileage may vary.

Cris

[DougBrennan]

I would push in here as well.

5-handed I'm going to proceed as if 99 is the best hand until shown otherwise, and a 3xBB raise from CO doesn't show me that I'm second-best.

Making the move here might cost you 4th every once in a while, but in my opinion the chance to improve position makes that risk worthwhile.

[wayabvpar]

Push it on in. You are ahead of a LOT of hands he might use to semi-bluff and steal.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Thanks for the replies. This was a sanity check, trying to avoid being results oriented.

I pushed in. Opponent had A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I got rivered. C'est la vie.

[wayabvpar]

Ahh, the old 'three outer on the river' trick. I have fell victim to it a few times myself.

[X-Calibre]

Obviously this depends on your read of him. If you think his second card is below a 9 then you have him quite beat.

More importantly though is how the table has been playing out. Is there a lot of aggression at the tables? If so you could very well blind into the money, which would make a push a bad mistake.

Here's another trick with PP, if you have a good read that he would steal with any A or K, you can flop it then push if neither shows. Because you act first this will put him under the GAP concept pretty hard. Early position is in your favor when you are going all in [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[The Dude]

Pushing here is certainly a reasonable move, and likely what I would have done as well. The other play to consider is smoothcalling, then leading all-in on any flop with no A. If this person will raise here to steal with a weak K, then consider adding the K to flops you won't bet.

This late in the tourney I'm more concerned with making sure I win the pot than trying to win a big pot.

[ThaSaltCracka]

I agree with everyone all-in. However my reason is one that I haven't seen anyone mention yet. on SnG when you are down to the bubble being aggresive can pay off. Many people are not likely to play unless they have group 1-2 hands. The button could have very easily been trying to steal your blinds, so pushing there is likely to make him fold. I am somewhat surprised he called you.