Should I have called this flop bet and chased?

Were my pot odds correct to call this bet on a draw?

$5 + $0.50 Sit & Go (1007552), Table 1 - 100/200 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:39:08 ET - 2005/07/21
Seat 2: bwconvention (5,090)
Seat 7: teverage (4,260)
Seat 9: dcr26 (4,150)
dcr26 posts the small blind of 100
bwconvention posts the big blind of 200
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bwconvention [Jc Qd]
teverage raises to 400
dcr26 raises to 600
bwconvention calls 400
teverage calls 200
*** FLOP *** [Kd 2d Th]
dcr26 bets 400
bwconvention calls 400
teverage raises to 1,200
dcr26 folds
bwconvention has 15 seconds left to act
bwconvention calls 800
*** TURN *** [Kd 2d Th] [5s]
bwconvention checks
teverage bets 2,460, and is all in
bwconvention has 15 seconds left to act
bwconvention folds
Uncalled bet of 2,460 returned to teverage
teverage shows [9h 9s] (a pair of Nines)
teverage wins the pot

[wiggs73]

The pot is offering you 4.75:1 to call the raise on the flop. Your odds of hitting on the turn are 6.5:1. So you should fold unless you think there's a good chance of getting a free look at the river, which after the raise, I doubt there is.

just so i understand better why are my odds as such? i fig.
it was close but called anyway. ty

[wiggs73]

600*3 pre-flop. 400*2 on the flop, plus the 1200 raise. So the pot is at t3800 and it costs you 800 to call. 3800/800 = 4.75 so you're getting 4.75:1 on your money.

You have 6 outs for a straight. There are 52 cards in the deck - 2 in your hand - 2 in his hand - 3 on the board. 45 cards left. That leaves 39 cards that don't help and 6 that do. 39/6 = 6.5. 4.75 < 6.5 so don't call.

Your odds would change if you had 2 shots at catching the straight, but it's highly unlikely that you will after that raise, so I didn't factor that in.

[ajohnson16]

[ QUOTE ]
600*3 pre-flop. 400*2 on the flop, plus the 1200 raise. So the pot is at t3800 and it costs you 800 to call. 3800/800 = 4.75 so you're getting 4.75:1 on your money.

You have 6 outs for a straight. There are 52 cards in the deck - 2 in your hand - 2 in his hand - 3 on the board. 45 cards left. That leaves 39 cards that don't help and 6 that do. 39/6 = 6.5. 4.75 < 6.5 so don't call.

Your odds would change if you had 2 shots at catching the straight, but it's highly unlikely that you will after that raise, so I didn't factor that in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Shouldn't it technically be 39/8 since you don't know that he's holding 99? That would give you 4.5-1 on your money, thus making it the correct call.

[wiggs73]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
600*3 pre-flop. 400*2 on the flop, plus the 1200 raise. So the pot is at t3800 and it costs you 800 to call. 3800/800 = 4.75 so you're getting 4.75:1 on your money.

You have 6 outs for a straight. There are 52 cards in the deck - 2 in your hand - 2 in his hand - 3 on the board. 45 cards left. That leaves 39 cards that don't help and 6 that do. 39/6 = 6.5. 4.75 < 6.5 so don't call.

Your odds would change if you had 2 shots at catching the straight, but it's highly unlikely that you will after that raise, so I didn't factor that in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Shouldn't it technically be 39/8 since you don't know that he's holding 99? That would give you 4.5-1 on your money, thus making it the correct call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm assuming that he has a king, which would be the worst case here, because then a queen or jack hitting doesn't help. We need to hit a straight to have the best hand.

If he turned over his cards and showed 99 you'd actually have the odds to call because then you could hit an ace, of which there are 3, a queen or jack, of where there are 6, or a 9 of which there are 1. So your odds would then be 3.5:1 and it's an easy call. We can't know that we have 2 overcards to a pair though, so I was assuming that he'd need to hit the straight in order to win.

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]

You have 6 outs for a straight.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think discouting the two diamonds when it is three way is too conservative. I would count all 8 outs, though maybe count it as 7.5 if you want to err on the side of caution. Also, hero has a BDF draw, and his pairing outs may be good.

Note to OP, you may want to end the hand history at where you have your qustion in the future and ask what people think you should do at that point. In this case it would be something like:

"Villain raises to T1200, Hero ???"

Then post the results after some discussion.

[wiggs73]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

You have 6 outs for a straight.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think discouting the two diamonds when it is three way is too conservative. I would count all 8 outs,

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh huh... you see, basically what this comes down to is that I'm an idiot. You indeed have 8 outs to a straight, making the odds of hitting 4.6:1, making it slightly correct to call, and making me slightly dumber than average. Good times.

cool, thanks for the lesson.

[wiggs73]

No prob.

FWIW, with the pot where it is and the guy leading with a bet of 400 into a t1800 pot, I'd probably make a play and raise the flop here. His bet seems weak to me. Also, you would have invested about the same amount of chips but taken the lead in the hand. If you get played back at, you can probably assume you're beaten. You get a lot more info this way for the same price. And you also keep hands like 99 from making the same sort of play on you.