Game Theory Blufiing Question

[schroedy]

Well first of all, is there any recommended literature on the topic?

Second -- I think I know the right way to calculate a bluffing percentage for the end card -- BET/POT = BLUFF%. Is this correct? (Bruce Z?)

Finally, and the real point of this post/thread. Is there a way to calculate the theoretically proper frequency of semi-bluffing or, for that matter, slowplay with more cards to come (I am interested primarily in Hold 'Em)?

The question arose because a poster on another thread claimed with absolute certainty that he knew a player would not bet top pair in a certain situation (but would rather go for the check raise every time). This got me to thinking that I had better create a strategy for sometimes leading with a good hand, or sometimes not, with some deceptive randomness thrown in when the players are very good.